Short-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and daily mortality in London, UK.
Short-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and daily mortality in London, UK.
复制标题
英国伦敦的短期暴露于与交通相关的空气污染和每日死亡率。
DOI：
10.1038/jes.2015.65
复制
发表时间：
2016-03
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Kelly FJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Atkinson RW;Analitis A;Samoli E;Fuller GW;Green DC;Mudway IS;Anderson HR;Kelly FJ
流行病学研究将城市空气污染的每日浓度与死亡率联系起来，但很少有人调查可以为减排政策提供信息的具体交通来源。我们建立了一个每天100万英镑的数据库，对2011年至2012年伦敦空气污染特征的污染物浓度进行了测量和建模。基于对指标间时间格局和相关性的分析、对当地排放源的了解以及参考现有文献，我们先验地选择了交通污染的标志：氮氧化物（一般交通）；单质碳和黑碳（EC/BC）（柴油废气）；一氧化碳（汽油废气）；铜（轮胎），锌（刹车）和铝（矿物粉尘）。考虑季节性和气象学因素的泊松回归用于估计与每种污染物的四分位数增量相关的死亡风险的百分比变化。相关性一般较小，置信区间为0%，心血管死亡率呈负相关，呼吸系统死亡率呈正相关。经颗粒质量和呼吸死亡率校正后，EC和BC的正相关性最强，分别为2.66%（95%可信区间：0.11,5.28）和2.72%(95%可信区间：0.09,5.42)/ 0.8和1.0 μg/m3。这些关联对于其他交通指标和区域污染物的调整是强大的，这表明呼吸死亡率和含有EC/BC的柴油废气具有一定程度的特异性。
Epidemiological studies have linked daily concentrations of urban air pollution to mortality, but few have investigated specific traffic sources that can inform abatement policies. We assembled a database of >100 daily, measured and modelled pollutant concentrations characterizing air pollution in London between 2011 and 2012. Based on the analyses of temporal patterns and correlations between the metrics, knowledge of local emission sources and reference to the existing literature, we selected, a priori, markers of traffic pollution: oxides of nitrogen (general traffic); elemental and black carbon (EC/BC) (diesel exhaust); carbon monoxide (petrol exhaust); copper (tyre), zinc (brake) and aluminium (mineral dust). Poisson regression accounting for seasonality and meteorology was used to estimate the percentage change in risk of death associated with an interquartile increment of each pollutant. Associations were generally small with confidence intervals that spanned 0% and tended to be negative for cardiovascular mortality and positive for respiratory mortality. The strongest positive associations were for EC and BC adjusted for particle mass and respiratory mortality, 2.66% (95% confidence interval: 0.11, 5.28) and 2.72% (0.09, 5.42) per 0.8 and 1.0 μg/m3, respectively. These associations were robust to adjustment for other traffic metrics and regional pollutants, suggesting a degree of specificity with respiratory mortality and diesel exhaust containing EC/BC.