No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970-2008
No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970-2008
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-10-97-2010
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Barredo, J. I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barredo, J. I.
2007年1月18日，飓风基里尔袭击了欧洲，造成47人死亡，100亿美元的损失。Kyrill提出了几个问题：Kyrill是一个孤立的或特殊的案例？过去有过花费这么多的活动吗？本文试图通过研究1970-2008年期间欧洲29个国家的大型历史风暴事件损失，将Kyrill置于历史背景中。它提出的问题是，如果这些历史事件在2008年的社会条件下重演，会造成什么样的经济损失？损失数据来源于再保险公司，并补充了历史报告、同行评审文章和其他辅助来源。按照以前研究中概述的相同概念方法，然后根据国家一级人口、财富和通货膨胀的变化以及使用购买力平价的国家间价格差异对数据进行调整。分析显示，正常化的风暴损失没有任何趋势，并证实灾害损失的增加是由社会因素和风险增加所驱动的。
On 18 January 2007, windstorm Kyrill battered Europe with hurricane-force winds killing 47 people and causing 10 billion US$ in damage. Kyrill poses several questions: is Kyrill an isolated or exceptional case? Have there been events costing as much in the past? This paper attempts to put Kyrill into an historical context by examining large historical windstorm event losses in Europe for the period 1970-2008 across 29 European countries. It asks the question what economic losses would these historical events cause if they were to recur under 2008 societal conditions? Loss data were sourced from reinsurance firms and augmented with historical reports, peer-reviewed articles and other ancillary sources. Following the same conceptual approach outlined in previous studies, the data were then adjusted for changes in population, wealth, and inflation at the country level and for inter-country price differences using purchasing power parity. The analyses reveal no trend in the normalised windstorm losses and confirm increasing disaster losses are driven by societal factors and increasing exposure.