Intraseasonal Forecasting of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Four Operational and Research Models
Intraseasonal Forecasting of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Four Operational and Research Models
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-12-00252.1
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发表时间：
2013-06
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Xiouhua Fu;June‐Yi Lee;Bin Wang;Wanqiu Wang;F. Vitart
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiouhua Fu;June‐Yi Lee;Bin Wang;Wanqiu Wang;F. Vitart
摘要北半球夏季季内涛动（BSISO）是一个主要的热带模态，周期为30 ~ 60天，为亚洲夏季风的季内预报提供了机会。本研究对BSISO在四个最先进模式下的预测能力进行了初步的、最新的评估：ECMWF模式、夏威夷大学（UH）模式、NCEP气候预报系统第2版（CFSv2）和2008年夏季第1版（CFSv1）， 2008年夏季是两个国际项目的共同年份：热带对流年（YOTC）和亚洲季风年（AMY）。前三种模式对bsso相关降水（850 hpa纬向风）在全球热带和东南亚地区的平均预测能力约为1-2周，为空间异常相关系数降至0.5的提前时间。CFSv1的技能一直低于其他三位。CFSv2、UH和ECMWF模式在预测…
AbstractThe boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a dominant tropical mode with a period of 30–60 days, which offers an opportunity for intraseasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon. The present study provides a preliminary, yet up-to-date, assessment of the prediction skill of the BSISO in four state-of-the-art models: the ECMWF model, the University of Hawaii (UH) model, the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and version 1 for the 2008 summer (CFSv1), which is a common year of two international programs: the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) and Asian Monsoon Years (AMY). The mean prediction skill over the global tropics and Southeast Asia for first three models reaches about 1–2 (3) weeks for BSISO-related rainfall (850-hPa zonal wind), measured as the lead time when the spatial anomaly correlation coefficient drops to 0.5. The skill of CFSv1 is consistently lower than the other three. The strengths and weaknesses of the CFSv2, UH, and ECMWF models in forecasting the...