Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond
Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond
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DOI：
10.1257/aer.90.4.806
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发表时间：
2000-09-01
影响因子：
10.7
通讯作者：
Weil, DN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Galor, O;Weil, DN
本文建立了一个统一的增长模型，该模型捕捉了人口、技术和产出的历史演变。它包含了作为经济发展特征的三种制度之间的内生过渡。在马尔萨斯制度下，技术进步缓慢，人口增长阻碍了人均收入的持续增长。新经济从马尔萨斯制度演变为后马尔萨斯制度，技术进步加快，人口增长只吸收了产出增长的一部分。最终，人口结构的转变会逆转男女之间的正相关关系。收入和人口增长，经济进入现代增长体制，人口增长减少，收入持续增长。[j] .石油学报，2003,30(4):526 - 526。
This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. nle economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between? income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modem Growth regime with reduced population growth and sustained income growth. (JEL J13, Oil, O33, O40).