Supplementary Paper Series for the "Comprehensive Assessment" (2): Developments in the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan
Supplementary Paper Series for the "Comprehensive Assessment" (2): Developments in the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan
复制标题
《综合评估》补充论文系列（二）：日本自然利率的发展
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nao Sudo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Fujiwara;Yuto Iwasaki;Ichiro Muto;Kenji Nishizaki;Nao Sudo
自然利率是经济活动和价格既不加速也不减速的实际利率。货币宽松的基本机制——无论是通过常规还是非常规政策手段实施——都是将实际利率推至低于自然利率。因此，从理论上讲，为了评估货币宽松的效果，需要估计本质上不可观察的自然利率，并确定实际利率相对于估计的自然利率是更高还是更低。本文使用多种不同的方法来估计自然利率。虽然根据所采取的方法不同，估计结果会有所不同，但估计结果表明，日本的自然利率目前很可能处于 0% 左右的较低水平。
The natural rate of interest is the real interest rate at which economic activity and prices neither accelerate nor decelerate. The basic mechanism of monetary easing -- regardless of whether it is conducted through conventional or unconventional policy means -- consists of driving the real interest rate below the natural rate of interest. Theoretically, therefore, in order to assess the effects of monetary easing, it is necessary to estimate the natural rate of interest, which is by nature unobservable, and determine whether the real interest rate is higher or lower, relative to the estimated natural rate of interest. This paper estimates the natural rate of interest using a number of different approaches. While the estimates differ to some extent depending on the approach taken, the estimation results suggest that it is likely that Japan's natural rate of interest is currently at a low level of around 0 percent.