From the EMS to the EMU and…To China
From the EMS to the EMU and…To China
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从 EMS 到 EMU 再到……到中国
DOI：
10.36687/inetwp102
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Halévi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Halévi
本文论述了欧洲货币体系的经验及其失败，马斯特里赫特条约，以及导致1999年欧洲货币联盟成立的空白期。该文件强调了德国当局的立场，表明他们非常清楚将货币政策与财政政策分开的过程中所固有的根本弱点，优先考虑前者的集中化。本文没有重复对欧洲货币联盟的著名批评--读者可以参考斯蒂格利茨的无与伦比的处理，而是强调了欧洲在20世纪90年代和本千年的第一个十年中的分裂。特别是意大利终端危机的早期经济和政治根源位于20世纪80年代末和90年代之间。法国被证明越来越属于所谓的欧洲外围国家，因为它的工业结构不断削弱，国际收支持续逆差。本文认为，法国通过政治手段和作为一个活跃的核军事大国的影响力，以维护其帝国利益和姿态，特别是在非洲，重新发挥其核心作用。本千年的第一个十年被描述为一个独特的德国经济区在欧洲中部形成的时期，它向东发展，对中华人民共和国的引力越来越大。
This essay deals with the EMS experience and its failure, with the Maastricht Treaty, and with the interregnum leading to the formation of the EMU in 1999. The paper highlights the position of German authorities, showing that they were quite lucid about the fundamental weaknesses inherent in a process that separated monetary from fiscal policies by giving priority to the centralization of the former. Instead of repeating the well known critiques leveled against the EMU – for which readers are referred to the unsurpassed treatment by Stiglitz, the essay highlights the splintering of Europe in the way in which it has unfolded during the 1990s and in the first decade of the present millennium. In particular the early economic and political origins of the terminal crisis of Italy are located between the late 1980s and the 1990s. France is shown to belong increasingly to the so-called European periphery by virtue of a weakening industrial structure and persistent balance of payments deficits. The paper argues that France regains its central role by political means and through its weight as an active nuclear military power centered on maintaining its imperial interests and posture especially in Africa. The first decade of the present millennium is portrayed as the period in which a distinct German economic area had been formed in the midst of Europe with a strong drive to the east with an increasingly powerful gravitational pull towards the People’s Republic of China.