The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design
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DOI：
10.5194/cp-12-663-2016
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Salzmann, Ulrich
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Haywood, Alan M.;Dowsett, Harry J.;Salzmann, Ulrich
上新世模式相互比较项目（PlioMIP）是一个协调的国际气候模拟计划，旨在研究和了解上新世晚期的气候和环境，以及它们在未来气候变化背景下的潜在相关性。PlioMIP考察了模型预测在模拟上新世气候方面的一致性，以及它们再现地质气候档案保存的气候信号的能力。本文介绍了模式比对计划下一阶段（PlioMIP第2阶段）的目标和目的，并介绍了第2阶段气候模式试验的试验设计和边界条件。第2阶段将继续作为气候模式结构不确定性的取样机制。然而，第一阶段表明，需要更好地了解边界条件的不确定性以及用于数据模型比较的方法的不确定性。因此，我们第二阶段的策略是利用过去5年中出现的最先进的边界条件。其中包括一个新的古地理重建，详细海洋测深和陆地冰表面地形。冰面地形是建立在离线冰盖建模研究的经验教训之上的。最近增加的上新世土壤和湖泊增加了地表覆盖。古CO2的大气重建正在轨道时间尺度上出现，这些也被纳入PlioMIP第2阶段。地表和海面温度变化的新记录正在产生，这将与模型中使用的边界条件和强迫在时间上更加一致。最后，我们设计了一套优先实验，以解决围绕上新世的基本理解及其在未来气候变化背景下的相关性的问题。
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2.Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models.Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.