Tax Policy and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Japanese Fiscal Experiments
Tax Policy and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Japanese Fiscal Experiments
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税收政策和消费者支出：日本财政实验的证据
DOI：
10.3386/w7252
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Tsutomu Watanabe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Katsunori Watanabe;Takayuki Watanabe;Tsutomu Watanabe
本文研究了税收政策对消费支出的影响在临时和永久以及预期和未预期的税收变化之间的差异程度。为了区分它们，我们使用了机构信息，例如临时和永久税收变化的法律的区别，以及政策宣布和实施的时间。我们发现，暂时性变化的影响明显小于永久性变化的影响。我们还发现，超过80%的日本消费者，包括那些区分临时和永久税收变化的人，在实施税收变化时做出反应，而不是在政策宣布时。我们建议的解释，这些消费者遵循一个接近理性的决策规则。
This paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent, as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes. To discriminate between them, we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes, as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation. We find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes. We also find that more than 80 per cent of Japanese consumers, including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes, respond to tax changes at the time of their implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement. We suggest an interpretation that these consumers follow a near-rational decision rule.