Annual Hazard Rates of Recurrence for Breast Cancer During 24 Years of Follow-Up: Results From the International Breast Cancer Study Group Trials I to V
Annual Hazard Rates of Recurrence for Breast Cancer During 24 Years of Follow-Up: Results From the International Breast Cancer Study Group Trials I to V
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DOI：
10.1200/jco.2015.62.3504
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发表时间：
2016-03-20
影响因子：
45.3
通讯作者：
Goldhirsch, Aron
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Colleoni, Marco;Sun, Zhuoxin;Goldhirsch, Aron
目的预测复发模式有助于制定有针对性的监测和治疗策略。我们确定了在确诊为可手术乳腺癌后的中位随访时间为24年的患者群体中仍有发生事件的风险。患者和方法国际乳腺癌研究小组临床试验I至V在1978至1985年间随机分配了4,105名患者。结果整个组的年化复发风险在前5年最高(10.4%)，在1-2年间达到峰值(15.2%)。在前5年中，雌激素受体(ER)阳性疾病患者的年化风险比ER阴性患者低(9.9%比11.5%；P=0.01)。但5年以上ER阳性患者的危险性较高(5~10年：5.4%比3.3%；10~15岁：2.9%比1.3%；15~20年：2.8%比1.2%；20~25年：1.3%比1.4%；P
Purpose Predicting the pattern of recurrence can aid in the development of targeted surveillance and treatment strategies. We identified patient populations that remain at risk for an event at a median follow-up of 24 years from the diagnosis of operable breast cancer.Patients and Methods International Breast Cancer Study Group clinical trials I to V randomly assigned 4,105 patients between 1978 and 1985. Annualized hazards were estimated for breast cancer-free interval (primary end point), disease-free survival, and overall survival.Results For the entire group, the annualized hazard of recurrence was highest during the first 5 years (10.4%), with a peak between years 1 and 2 (15.2%). During the first 5 years, patients with estrogen receptor (ER) - positive disease had a lower annualized hazard compared with those with ER-negative disease (9.9% v 11.5%; P =.01). However, beyond 5 years, patients with ER-positive disease had higher hazards (5 to 10 years: 5.4% v 3.3%; 10 to 15 years: 2.9% v 1.3%; 15 to 20 years: 2.8% v 1.2%; and 20 to 25 years: 1.3% v 1.4%; P