Understanding individual human mobility patterns
Understanding individual human mobility patterns
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DOI：
10.1038/nature06958
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发表时间：
2008-06-05
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gonzalez, Marta C.;Hidalgo, Cesar A.;Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo
尽管它们对城市规划(1)、交通预测(2)以及生物（3-5）和移动病毒的传播(6)很重要，但由于缺乏监测个体时间分辨位置的工具，我们对控制人类运动的基本规律的理解仍然有限。在这里，我们研究了10万匿名移动电话用户的轨迹，他们的位置被跟踪了6个月。我们发现，与流行的Levy飞行和随机行走模型预测的随机轨迹(7)相比，人类的轨迹显示出高度的时空规律性，每个个体都具有与时间无关的特征旅行距离和返回几个频繁地点的显著概率。在修正了旅行距离的差异和每个轨迹固有的各向异性之后，个体旅行模式崩溃为单一的空间概率分布，这表明尽管人类的旅行历史具有多样性，但人类遵循简单的可重复模式。旅行模式的这种内在相似性可能影响到由人类流动驱动的所有现象，从流行病预防到应急反应、城市规划和基于主体的建模。
Despite their importance for urban planning(1), traffic forecasting(2) and the spread of biological(3-5) and mobile viruses(6), our understanding of the basic laws governing human motion remains limited owing to the lack of tools to monitor the time- resolved location of individuals. Here we study the trajectory of 100,000 anonymized mobile phone users whose position is tracked for a six- month period. We find that, in contrast with the random trajectories predicted by the prevailing Levy flight and random walk models(7), human trajectories show a high degree of temporal and spatial regularity, each individual being characterized by a time-independent characteristic travel distance and a significant probability to return to a few highly frequented locations. After correcting for differences in travel distances and the inherent anisotropy of each trajectory, the individual travel patterns collapse into a single spatial probability distribution, indicating that, despite the diversity of their travel history, humans follow simple reproducible patterns. This inherent similarity in travel patterns could impact all phenomena driven by human mobility, from epidemic prevention to emergency response, urban planning and agent- based modelling.