Frequentist properties of Bayesian posterior probabilities of phylogenetic trees under simple and complex substitution models
Frequentist properties of Bayesian posterior probabilities of phylogenetic trees under simple and complex substitution models
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DOI：
10.1080/10635150490522629
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发表时间：
2004-12-01
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
Rannala, B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huelsenbeck, JP;Rannala, B
系统发育树的后验概率是什么意思？这项模拟研究表明，贝叶斯后验概率具有通常赋予它们的含义；一棵树的后验概率是在模型正确的假设下该树正确的概率。同时，贝叶斯方法可能对模型误设敏感，而且贝叶斯方法的敏感性似乎大于非参数自助法（使用最大似然估计树）的敏感性。尽管使用最大似然法或贝叶斯方法获得的系统发育估计可能相似，但通过自助法（针对最大似然估计）或后验概率（针对贝叶斯估计）对推断树的不确定性进行的评估不太可能相同。我们建议使用当前可用的最复杂模型来实施贝叶斯方法，因为这应该会降低该方法将过多概率集中在过少树上的可能性。
What does the posterior probability of a phylogenetic tree mean? This simulation study shows that Bayesian posterior probabilities have the meaning that is typically ascribed to them; the posterior probability of a tree is the probability that the tree is correct, assuming that the model is correct. At the same time, the Bayesian method can be sensitive to model misspecification, and the sensitivity of the Bayesian method appears to be greater than the sensitivity of the nonparametric bootstrap method (using maximum likelihood to estimate trees). Although the estimates of phylogeny obtained by use of the method of maximum likelihood or the Bayesian method are likely to be similar, the assessment of the uncertainty of inferred trees via either bootstrapping (for maximum likelihood estimates) or posterior probabilities (for Bayesian estimates) is not likely to be the same. We suggest that the Bayesian method be implemented with the most complex models of those currently available, as this should reduce the chance that the method will concentrate too much probability on too few trees.