Arctic communities perceive climate impacts on access as a critical challenge to availability of subsistence resources
Arctic communities perceive climate impacts on access as a critical challenge to availability of subsistence resources
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-016-1819-6
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发表时间：
2016-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Rupp, T. Scott
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brinkman, Todd J.;Hansen, Winslow D.;Rupp, T. Scott
北极地区日益加剧的气候变化改变了农村社区与当地野生资源之间的相互作用。变化的相互作用值得分析，因为它们可以影响北方社会的文化习俗和粮食安全。我们与阿拉斯加的四个土著社区合作，并与71名经验丰富的采集者进行了半定向访谈，以确定当地对气候驱动的环境趋势的看法，并描述这些趋势对生存资源的可用性（即丰度、分布、可及性）的影响。然后，我们将当地的看法与科学的气候预测联系起来，以预测未来生存资源的可用性如何变化。猎人确定了气候驱动的环境变化与生存资源的可得性之间的47种重要关系。在这些关系中，分别有60%、28%和13%关注于采矿者获取、资源分配和资源丰度的变化。我们的预测模型表明，未来30年，可获得的生存资源将出现净减少。减少的主要原因是与气候有关的获取挑战，而不是资源丰度或分配的变化。我们的研究表明，在评估气候变化对未来生存机会的影响时，对采集者获取的关注不够可能会产生误导性的结论。
Amplified climate change in the Arctic has altered interactions between rural communities and local wild resources. Shifting interactions warrant analysis because they can influence cultural practices and food security of northern societies. We collaborated with four indigenous communities in Alaska and conducted semi-directed interviews with 71 experienced harvesters to identify local perceptions of climate-driven trends in the environment, and describe the effects of those trends on the availability (i.e., abundance, distribution, accessibility) of subsistence resources. We then linked local perceptions with scientific climate projections to forecast how availability of subsistence resources may change in the future. Hunters identified 47 important relationships between climate-driven changes in the environment and availability of subsistence resources. Of those relationships, 60, 28, and 13 % focused on changes in harvester access, resource distribution, and resource abundance, respectively. Our forecast model indicated a net reduction in the availability of subsistence resources over the next 30 years. The reduction was caused primarily by climate-related challenges in access, rather than changes in abundance or distribution of resources. Our study demonstrates how giving insufficient attention to harvester access may produce misleading conclusions when assessing the impacts of climate change on future subsistence opportunities.