Shackle and Modern Decision Theory
Shackle and Modern Decision Theory
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枷锁与现代决策理论
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Zappia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Marcello Basili;C. Zappia
本文探讨了乔治·L. S.在培养个人决策的非传统方法方面的束缚。直到20世纪70年代初，沙克尔是唯一一个对概率决策方法持批评态度的人，他提出了一种替代的正式语料库来处理不确定性。本文的主要目的是分析沙克尔的非概率概念化的个人决策下的不确定性从一个特定的观点，即他的理论和最近的一个最有趣的方法来决定下的不确定性，所谓的非添加剂的概率方法的吉尔博亚和Schmeidler之间的可能联系。本文表明，这些发展在现代决策理论采取沙克尔的问题认真和确认，严格的贝叶斯理论的依赖概率判断的基础上点概率估计，依赖沙克尔打算反对，是站不住脚的。非加性决策理论也提供了一种非加性概率分布在选择中的使用，这是一种替代沙克尔使用概率定性概念的方法，例如潜在的惊喜。
The paper discusses the role of George L.S. Shackle in fostering an unconventional approach to individual decision making. Up until the early 1970s Shackle was the single critic of the probabilistic approach to decision making who proposed an alternative formal corpus for dealing with uncertainty. The main aim of the paper is to analyse Shackle's non-probabilistic conceptualization of individual decisions under uncertainty from a specific viewpoint, namely that of a possible connection between his theory and one of the most interesting recent approaches to decision under uncertainty, the so-called non-additive probability approach of Gilboa and Schmeidler. The paper shows that these developments in modern decision theory take Shackle's issue seriously and confirm that the reliance of strict Bayesian theory on probabilistic judgements based on point-probability estimates, a reliance that Shackle intended to oppose, is untenable. Non-additive decision theory also provides a usage of non-additive probability distributions in choice that is an alternative to Shackle's approach of using a qualitative notion of probability, such as potential surprise.