Strong Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19 Growth Rate
Strong Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19 Growth Rate
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DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00608
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Yelowitz, Aaron
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Courtemanche, Charles;Garuccio, Joseph;Yelowitz, Aaron
州及地方政府于二零二零年三月及四月实施社交距离措施，以遏制新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的传播。这些措施包括禁止大型社交聚会;关闭学校;关闭娱乐场所、健身房、酒吧和餐馆用餐区;以及就地避难令。我们评估了这些措施对2020年3月1日至2020年4月27日期间美国各县确诊COVID-19病例增长率的影响。事件研究设计允许每项政策对COVID-19病例增长的影响随着时间的推移而演变。采纳政府实施的社交距离措施后，确诊COVID-19病例的每日增长率在1至5天后下降5. 4个百分点，在6至10天后下降6. 8个百分点，在11至15天后下降8. 2个百分点，在16至20天后下降9. 1个百分点。保持自愿社交距离的数量不变，这些结果意味着，如果没有就地避难的命令，到4月27日，COVID-19的传播将增加10倍（1000万例），如果没有这四种措施中的任何一种，传播将增加35倍以上（3500万例）。我们的文章说明了在没有干预的情况下指数蔓延的潜在危险，提供了与重新启动经济活动的战略相关的信息。
State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April 2020 to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These measures included bans on large social gatherings; school closures; closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas; and shelter-in-place orders. We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases across US counties between March 1, 2020, and April 27, 2020. An event study design allowed each policy's impact on COVID-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases by 5.4 percentage points after one to five days, 6.8 percentage points after six to ten days, 8.2 percentage points after eleven to fifteen days, and 9.1 percentage points after sixteen to twenty days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply that there would have been ten times greater spread of COVID-19 by April 27 without shelter-in-place orders (ten million cases) and more than thirty-five times greater spread without any of the four measures (thirty-five million cases). Our article illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing information relevant to strategies for restarting economic activity.