Meteorology: Are there trends in hurricane destruction?
Meteorology: Are there trends in hurricane destruction?
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DOI：
10.1038/nature04426
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发表时间：
2005-12
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
R. Pielke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Pielke
出自：K.Emanuel Nature436,686-688(2005)；K.Emanuel回复。自从卡特里娜飓风的创纪录影响以来，人们的注意力集中在了解飓风的趋势及其破坏性潜力上。伊曼纽尔报告说，根据自1970年代以来北大西洋和西北太平洋累积的电力消耗年度指数的趋势，飓风的潜在破坏性显着增加。如果飓风确实随着时间的推移变得更具破坏性，那么这种趋势应该会表现为更多的破坏。然而，我对美国飓风损失的长期数据集的分析显示，一旦数据正常化，剔除社会变化的影响，就不会出现上升趋势。
Arising from: K. EmanuelNature436, 686–688 (2005); K. Emanuel reply.Since the record impact of Hurricane Katrina, attention has focused on understanding trends in hurricanes and their destructive potential. Emanuel reports a marked increase in the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on identification of a trend in an accumulated annual index of power dissipation in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific since the 1970s. If hurricanes are indeed becoming more destructive over time, then this trend should manifest itself in more destruction. However, my analysis of a long-term data set of hurricane losses in the United States shows no upward trend once the data are normalized to remove the effects of societal changes.