Population age structure only partially explains the large number of COVID-19 deaths at the oldest ages
Population age structure only partially explains the large number of COVID-19 deaths at the oldest ages
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DOI：
10.4054/demres.2020.43.19
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发表时间：
2020-08-21
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Trias-Llimos, Sergi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Medford, Anthony;Trias-Llimos, Sergi
背景迄今为止，对 COVID-19 死亡年龄分布的关注主要是为了了解各国之间病死率的差异。 目的我们探讨具有老龄化结构的六个欧洲国家中 COVID-19 死亡年龄分布的差异。我们通过跨国比较的方式来做到这一点，并提出了潜在差异的一些原因。方法我们估计了按 10 岁年龄组划分的死亡分布以及假设所有人口都具有意大利年龄结构的反事实年龄分布。为此，我们使用了法国、意大利、荷兰、德国、瑞典、西班牙和中国按 10 岁年龄分组的 COVID-19 死亡人数以及相应的人口暴露情况。结果所有欧洲国家的老年死亡比例都很高。尽管意大利是欧洲人口最古老的国家，但与研究中的其他国家相比，意大利 90 岁以上死亡的相对比例最低。 人口年龄结构似乎对于了解与 COVID-19 相关的死亡率至关重要，但其他因素可能发挥重要作用，特别是欧洲人口中的老年人。
BACKGROUNDTo date, any attention paid to the age shape of COVID-19 deaths has been mostly in relation to understanding the differences in case fatality rates between countries.OBJECTIVEWe explore differences in the age distribution of deaths from COVID-19 among six European countries which have old age structures. We do this by way of a cross-country comparison and put forward some reasons for potential differences.METHODSWe estimate the distribution of deaths by 10-year age groups and the counterfactual age distribution under the assumption that all populations had the age structure of Italy. For this, we use 10-year age-grouped COVID-19 death counts and the corresponding population exposures for France, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Spain, and China.RESULTSAll included European countries experienced a high proportion of deaths at older ages. The relative proportion of deaths at ages above 90 years is lowest in Italy when compared to the other countries in the study despite Italy having the oldest population in Europe.CONTRIBUTIONPopulation age structure seems essential for understanding COVID-19-related mortality, but other factors may play an important role, particularly at older ages in European populations.