Big data on a big new market: Insights from Washington State's legal cannabis market
Big data on a big new market: Insights from Washington State's legal cannabis market
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DOI：
10.1016/j.drugpo.2018.03.031
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发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Kilmer, Beau
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Caulkins, Jonathan P.;Bao, Yilun;Kilmer, Beau
简介：美国八个州的选民通过了将非医疗用途大麻大规模商业生产合法化的倡议。所有这些都计划或需要某种形式的“种子到销售”跟踪系统，该系统以迄今为止难以想象的详细程度提供大麻市场活动的视图。合法市场还为政策制定者带来了一系列新问题需要解决。 数据：公开数据是在华盛顿州合法大麻市场的头两年半期间发生的 3500 万笔零售交易中购买的约 4500 万件单独定价的商品获得的。记录包括产品类型（花、提取物、乳液、液体食用品等）、产品名称、价格和多种大麻素（特别是 THC 和 CBD）的效力。销售的商品可以追溯到供应链，通过商店到加工商和生产商，直至识别特定生产批次和母厂、测试产品的公司和测试结果。方法：采用数据可视化方法来描述按产品细分的多个相关属性（例如价格和效力）的时空模式。文本分析方法用于将“吸入提取物”这一大类细分为更同质的子类。为了了解华盛顿合法大麻市场的竞争力，我们计算了加工商和零售商的赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数（HHI）。结果：大麻价格在加工商和零售商层面稳步按比例下降。经过最初的波动后，多种产品类型的零售和批发价格维持在大约 3:1 的比例。尽管销售的食品种类繁多，但它们在消费者支出中所占的份额并不大。吸入提取物是一个更大且多样化的细分市场。 HHI 表明大麻市场在加工商层面竞争激烈，但在县级零售市场竞争较差。结论：华盛顿州合法的大麻市场多样化，并且在定价、产品和组织方面发展迅速。合法化后，研究人员和政策制定者可能需要考虑一系列大麻产品，类似于我们如何看待新的精神活性物质和安非他明类兴奋剂，而不是单一的药物“大麻”。
Introduction: Voters in eight U.S. states have passed initiatives to legalize large-scale commercial production of cannabis for non-medical use. All plan or require some form of "seed-to-sale" tracking systems, which provide a view of cannabis market activity at a heretofore unimagined level of detail. Legal markets also create a range of new matters for policy makers to address.Data: Publicly available data were obtained on approximately 45 million individually priced items purchased in the 35 million retail transactions that took place during the first two and a half years of Washington State's legal cannabis market. Records include product type (flower, extract, lotion, liquid edible, etc.), product name, price, and potency with respect to multiple cannabinoids, notably THC and CBD. Items sold can be traced back up the supply chain through the store to the processor and producer, to the level of identifying the specific production batch and mother plant, the firm that tested the product, and test results.Method: Data visualization methods are employed to describe spatial-temporal patterns of multiple correlated attributes (e.g., price and potency) broken down by product. Text-analytic methods are used to subdivide the broad category of "extracts for inhalation" into more homogeneous sub-categories. To understand the competitiveness of the legal cannabis market in Washington we calculate the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) for processors and retailers.Results: Cannabis prices fell steadily and proportionally at the processor and retailer levels. Retail and wholesale price maintained a roughly 3:1 ratio for multiple product types after some initial fluctuations. Although a wide range of edibles are sold, they account for a modest share of consumer spending; extracts for inhalation are a larger and heterogeneous market segment. The HHI indicates the cannabis market is highly competitive at the processor level, but less so for retail markets at the county level.Conclusions: Washington's state-legal cannabis market is diverse and rapidly evolving in terms of pricing, products, and organization. Post-legalization, researchers and policy makers may need to think in terms of a family of cannabis products, akin to how we think of new psychoactive substances and amphetamine-type stimulants, not a single drug "cannabis."