Estimation of failure probabilities in the presence of competing risks: new representations of old estimators.
Estimation of failure probabilities in the presence of competing risks: new representations of old estimators.
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DOI：
10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19990330)18:6
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发表时间：
1999-03
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
T. Gooley;Ted Gooley;W. Leisenring;W. Leisenring;J. P. Crowley;J. Crowley;B. Storer;B. Storer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Gooley;Ted Gooley;W. Leisenring;W. Leisenring;J. P. Crowley;J. Crowley;B. Storer;B. Storer
在统计和医学文献中都受到关注的一个主题是对面临竞争风险的终端的故障概率的估计。尽管如此，在这种情况下使用Kaplan-Meier估计的补码并解释为失败概率的情况并不少见。然而，如果需要可以这样解释的估计值，则累积发生率估计值是在这种情况下使用的适当工具。我们认为，更常见的卡普兰-梅尔估计和累积发病率估计的表述并不容易解释和理解这种解释。因此，我们以一种不常见的方式提出了每个估计的表示法，每个表示法都利用了“向右重新分配”被审查的观测值的概念。我们认为，这些方法可以更直观地了解每个估计，从而理解为什么在存在竞争风险的情况下，Kaplan-Meier方法不适合估计目的，而累积发生率估计是合适的。
A topic that has received attention in both the statistical and medical literature is the estimation of the probability of failure for endpoints that are subject to competing risks. Despite this, it is not uncommon to see the complement of the Kaplan-Meier estimate used in this setting and interpreted as the probability of failure. If one desires an estimate that can be interpreted in this way, however, the cumulative incidence estimate is the appropriate tool to use in such situations. We believe the more commonly seen representations of the Kaplan-Meier estimate and the cumulative incidence estimate do not lend themselves to easy explanation and understanding of this interpretation. We present, therefore, a representation of each estimate in a manner not ordinarily seen, each representation utilizing the concept of censored observations being 'redistributed to the right.' We feel these allow a more intuitive understanding of each estimate and therefore an appreciation of why the Kaplan-Meier method is inappropriate for estimation purposes in the presence of competing risks, while the cumulative incidence estimate is appropriate.