Assessing the Performance of WRF Model in Simulating Rainfall over Western Uganda
Assessing the Performance of WRF Model in Simulating Rainfall over Western Uganda
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DOI：
10.4172/2332-2594.1000197
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发表时间：
2017
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
I. Mugume;Daniel Waiswa;Mesquita Mds;J. Reuder;C. Basalirwa;Y. Bamutaze;R. Twinomuhangi;F. Tumwine;J. SansaOtim;T. JacobNgailo;G. Ayesiga
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作者：
I. Mugume;Daniel Waiswa;Mesquita Mds;J. Reuder;C. Basalirwa;Y. Bamutaze;R. Twinomuhangi;F. Tumwine;J. SansaOtim;T. JacobNgailo;G. Ayesiga
熟练的降雨预测对农业、卫生和水资源等部门很重要。该研究评估了天气研究和预报模型模拟2013年4月21日至5月10日期间乌干达西部降雨的能力，并测试了六种积云参数化方案。采用均方根误差、平均误差和符号检验方法，结合自适应列联表，对各方案模拟降雨的能力进行了沿着评价。结果表明，Grell-Fretas方案较好地模拟了降雨过程，而Betts-Miller-Janji 'c和Kain-Fritsch方案高估了降雨过程。然而，除了Betts-Miller-Janjic和Kain-Fritsch方案之外，所有方案都预测了强降雨事件，但都预测了小雨。海拔高度的变化对降水的预测有显著的影响，海拔高度每增加25%，降水的预测概率就增加6.5%，这表明海拔高度在对流中起着关键作用。
Skillful rainfall prediction is important to sectors such as agriculture, health and water resources. The study assessed the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model to simulate rainfall over Western Uganda for the period 21st April to 10th May 2013 and tested six cumulus parameterization schemes. The root mean square error, mean error and the sign test method are used to assess the ability of the schemes to simulate rainfall along with an adapted contingency table. Results show that the Grell-Fretas scheme is better at simulating rainfall compared to other schemes over the study period while the Betts-Miller-Janji’c and the Kain-Fritsch schemes overestimated rainfall. However all the schemes under predicted heavy rainfall events but the Betts-Miller-Janjic and the Kain-Fritsch schemes over predicted the light rainfall. The variation of altitude presented a noticeable change in predicted rainfall where an increase of 25% in altitude increased the probability of prediction by 6.5% which shows a key role played by altitude in convection.