Bayesian networks and the problem of unreliable instruments
Bayesian networks and the problem of unreliable instruments
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DOI：
10.1086/338940
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发表时间：
2002-03-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Hartmann, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bovens, L;Hartmann, S
我们呼吁贝叶斯网络理论对不同的策略进行建模，以从不完全可靠的工具提供的实验测试结果中获得假说的确认。特别是，我们考虑(I)假设的单一测试结果的重复测量，(Ii)假设的多个测试结果的测量，(Iii)对仪器可靠性的理论支持，以及(Iv)校准程序。我们评估了这些策略在理想化条件下的相对优劣，并在证据多样性命题和迪昂-奎因命题上显示了一些令人惊讶的反响。
We appeal to the theory of Bayesian Networks to model different strategies for obtaining confirmation for a hypothesis from experimental test results provided by less than fully reliable instruments. In particular, we consider (i) repeated measurements of a single test consequence of the hypothesis, (ii) measurements of multiple test consequences of the hypothesis, (iii) theoretical support for the reliability of the instrument, and (iv) calibration procedures. We evaluate these strategies on their relative merits under idealized conditions and show some surprising repercussions on the variety-of-evidence thesis and the Duhem-Quine thesis.