Modeling of China's cassava-based bioethanol supply chain operation and coordination
Modeling of China's cassava-based bioethanol supply chain operation and coordination
复制标题
中国木薯生物乙醇供应链运作与协调建模
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.114
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Lin Q
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ye Fei;Li Yina;Lin Qiang;Zhan Yuanzhu;Li YN;Lin Q
生物燃料作为石油燃料的替代品，具有良好的经济、环境和社会效益，正发挥着越来越重要的作用。木薯被认为是生产生物燃料的重要和非常有吸引力的非食用原料。本文以木薯生物乙醇供应链为研究对象，运用博弈论方法探讨了产量不确定条件下的决策行为。此外，提出了一种生产成本分担合同，以克服由于供应链参与者之间的竞争的双重边际化效应。以我国木薯生物乙醇产业为例，分析了农户生产能力、风险规避、产量不确定性、转化率、生物乙醇市场价格和乙醇工厂运营成本等因素对供应链最优决策及其整体绩效的影响。此外，对提出的生产成本分担合同的有效性进行了检验，结果表明，该合同能够增加木薯的供应量，提高整个供应链的效用，降低温室气体排放水平。为政策制定者提出了如何促进生物燃料工业发展、保证原料供应、减少温室气体排放和促进农村发展的影响。
As a useful alternative to petroleum-based fuel, biofuels are playing an increasingly important role due to their economic, environmental, and social benefits. Cassava is viewed as an important and highly attractive nonedible feedstock for the production of biofuels. In this paper, a game-theoretic approach is proposed to explore decision behavior within a cassava-based bioethanol supply chain under the condition of yield uncertainty. In addition, a production cost sharing contract is proposed to overcome the double marginalization effect due to competition between supply chain players. With data from China's cassava-based bioethanol industry, the paper analyzes the effects of the farmer's capacity, risk aversion, yield uncertainty, the conversion ratio, the bioethanol's market price and ethanol plant's operation cost on optimal decisions within the supply chain and its overall performance. In addition, the effectiveness of the proposed production cost sharing contract is tested, and the results show that it can enhance the supply of cassava, increase the utility of the whole supply chain and reduce the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The implications are set out for policy makers regarding how to promote the development of the biofuel industry, to guarantee the supply of feedstock, to reduce GHG emissions and to promote rural development.