Climatological variables and the incidence of Dengue fever in Barbados
Climatological variables and the incidence of Dengue fever in Barbados
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/09603120400012868
复制
发表时间：
2004-12-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Lovell, EH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Depradine, CA;Lovell, EH
一项回顾性研究，以确定登革热病例的发病率和气候变量之间的关系，并获得一个预测方程进行了比较小的加勒比岛屿巴巴多斯，分为11个教区。这项研究使用了一个教区的小区域内发生的每周登革热病例和1995-2000年的降水数据。其他气候资料则由本港气象局提供。该研究主要使用交叉相关分析，发现与6周滞后的蒸汽压的相关性最强。一个较弱的相关性发生在滞后7周的降水。最低气温滞后12周相关性最强，最高气温滞后16周相关性最强。滞后3周时与风速呈负相关。预测模型显示最大解释方差为35%。
A retrospective study to determine relationships between the incidence of dengue cases and climatological variables and to obtain a predictive equation was carried out for the relatively small Caribbean island of Barbados which is divided into 11 parishes. The study used the weekly dengue cases and precipitation data for the years (1995-2000) that occurred in the small area of a single parish. Other climatological data were obtained from the local meteorological offices. The study used primarily cross correlation analysis and found the strongest correlation with the vapour pressure at a lag of 6 weeks. A weaker correlation occurred at a lag of 7 weeks for the precipitation. The minimum temperature had its strongest correlation at a lag of 12 weeks and the maximum temperature a lag of 16 weeks. There was a negative correlation with the wind speed at a lag of 3 weeks. The predictive models showed a maximum explained variance of 35%.