Is rainfed crop production in central Europe at risk? Using a regional climate model to produce high resolution agroclimatic information for decision makers
Is rainfed crop production in central Europe at risk? Using a regional climate model to produce high resolution agroclimatic information for decision makers
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DOI：
10.1017/s0021859610000638
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Zalud, Z.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Trnka, M.;Eitzinger, J.;Zalud, Z.
在过去的几年里，气候变化的现实在欧洲很少受到质疑，因为在广泛的国家到地方的环境和资源政策制定者和利益相关者之间已经形成了一种共识，即气候变化已经在许多部门得到了充分的证明。中欧已经开展了一些基于实地的研究，评估各种作物可实现产量的变化，但评估该地区更多国家的农业气候潜力的研究很少。因此，本研究的主要目的是开发和测试一种技术，用于在中欧所有预期气候条件下以高空间分辨率对农业气候条件进行全面评估，以回答论文标题中提出的问题“中欧的雨养作物生产是否处于危险之中？”该领域涵盖了北纬45度至51.5度、东经8度至27度之间的整个中欧地区，包括奥地利、捷克共和国、德国、匈牙利、波兰、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克、瑞士和乌克兰的至少部分领土。该研究基于一系列农业气候指数，这些指数旨在捕捉气候与作物（它们的发展和/或生产）以及整个农业系统之间存在的复杂关系。它们提供了关于作物生产的各个方面的信息，但它们并不意味着与其他有时更合适的工具（例如基于过程的作物模型、土壤可加工性模型等）竞争。相反，所选指数可被视为对作物建模工具的补充，这些工具描述了作物模型未充分处理或未涵盖的方面，以全面评估作物生产条件。指标包括：有效总辐射总量、有效生长日数、呼林指数、4 ~ 6月和夏季水分平衡、6、7月适宜收获大田作物的天数比例、早春和秋季适宜播种的天数比例。该研究得出结论，尽管未来气候变化影响的不确定性仍然存在，但该领域整体平均生产潜力的增加（以有效全球辐射和有效生长日数表示）可能是气候变化的结果，而年际产量变异性和风险也可能增加。然而，对于潘诺尼亚地区（阿尔卑斯山脉、喀尔巴阡山脉和第纳尔山脉之间的低地）和地中海地区来说，情况并非如此。在这些地区，水资源短缺的增加将进一步限制雨补农业，但如果当地水资源减少，灌溉农业可能会增加。在该区域的中部和西部，很可能出现20年来干旱短缺的严重程度增加，在生长季节的关键部分，水资源短缺的严重程度更大。同样，水平衡的年际变率可能在整个区域内增加。由于天气不利，春季播种条件也有可能恶化，这可能会增加对冬季作物的偏好。这很可能是由于它们抵御春季干旱压力事件的能力。6月份的收获条件（某些作物可能在未来收获）没有比目前的水平有所改善，这使得有效收获时间的规划更具挑战性。根据目前研究提供的证据，可以得出结论，雨养农业可能确实面临更多与气候有关的风险，但总体条件可能允许大多数季节的产量达到可接受的水平。然而，证据也表明，极端不利年份导致经济回报不佳的风险可能会增加。
The reality of climate change has rarely been questioned in Europe in the last few years as a consensus has emerged amongst a wide range of national to local environmental and resource policy makers and stakeholders that climate change has been sufficiently demonstrated in a number of sectors. A number of site-based studies evaluating change of attainable yields of various crops have been conducted in Central Europe, but studies that evaluate agroclimatic potential across more countries in the region are rare. Therefore, the main aim of the present study was to develop and test a technique for a comprehensive evaluation of agroclimatic conditions under expected climate conditions over all of Central Europe with a high spatial resolution in order to answer the question posed in the title of the paper 'Is rainfed crop production in central Europe at risk?' The domain covers the entire area of Central Europe between latitudes 45 degrees and 51.5 degrees N and longitudes 8 degrees and 27 degrees E, including at least part of the territories of Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland and Ukraine. The study is based on a range of agroclimatic indices that are designed to capture complex relations existing between climate and crops (their development and/or production) as well as the agrosystems as a whole. They provide information about various aspects of crop production, but they are not meant to compete with other and sometimes more suitable tools (e. g. process-based crop models, soil workability models, etc.). Instead, the selected indices can be seen as complementary to crop modelling tools that describe aspects not fully addressed or covered by crop models for an overall assessment of crop production conditions. The set of indices includes: sum of effective global radiation, number of effective growing days, Huglin index, water balance during the period from April to June (AMJ) and during the summer (JJA), proportion of days suitable for harvesting of field crops in June and July, and proportion of days suitable for sowing in early spring as well as during the autumn. The study concluded that while the uncertainties about future climate change impacts remain, the increase in the mean production potential of the domain as a whole (expressed in terms of effective global radiation and number of effective growing days) is likely a result of climate change, while inter-annual yield variability and risk may also increase. However, this is not true for the Pannonian (the lowlands between the Alps, the Carpathian Mountains and the Dinaric Alps) and Mediterranean parts of the domain, where increases in the water deficit will further limit rainfed agriculture but will probably lead to an increase in irrigation agriculture if local water resources are dwindling. Increases in the severity of the 20-year drought deficit and more substantial water deficits during the critical part of the growing season are very likely over the central and western part of the domain. Similarly, the inter-annual variability of water balance is likely to increase over the domain. There is also a chance of conditions for sowing during spring deteriorating due to unfavourable weather, which might increase the preference given to winter crops. This is already likely due to their ability to withstand spring drought stress events. Harvesting conditions in June (when harvest of some crops might take place in the future) are not improving beyond the present level, making the planning of the effective harvest time more challenging.Based on theevidence provided by the present study, it could be concluded that rainfed agriculture might indeed face more climate-elated risks, but the overall conditions will probably allow for acceptable yield levels in most seasons. However, the evidence also suggests that the risk of extremely unfavourable years, resulting in poor economic returns, is likely to increase.