Predictability of El Nino over the past 148 years
Predictability of El Nino over the past 148 years
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/nature02439
复制
发表时间：
2004-04-15
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Huang, DJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, D;Cane, MA;Huang, DJ
厄尔尼诺气候事件的预报是定期提供和分发的，但厄尔尼诺可预测性的限度仍然是辩论的主题。最近的一些研究表明，可预测性在很大程度上受到高频大气“噪声”影响的限制（1-7），而其他研究则强调了模型模拟中初始误差增长所带来的限制（8-10）。在这里，我们使用海洋-大气耦合模式对1857年至2003年期间热带太平洋的年际气候波动进行了回顾性预测。该模型成功地预测了所有突出的厄尔尼诺事件在此期间的提前时间长达两年。我们的分析表明，厄尔尼诺的演变控制在更大程度上由自我维持的内部动力比随机强迫。因此，基于模型的厄尔尼诺预测更多地取决于初始条件，而不是不可预测的大气噪音。我们的结论是，在过去的世纪中，厄尔尼诺现象比以前设想的更容易预测。
Forecasts of El Nino climate events are routinely provided and distributed, but the limits of El Nino predictability are still the subject of debate. Some recent studies suggest that the predictability is largely limited by the effects of high-frequency atmospheric 'noise'(1-7), whereas others emphasize limitations arising from the growth of initial errors in model simulations(8-10). Here we present retrospective forecasts of the interannual climate fluctuations in the tropical Pacific Ocean for the period 1857 to 2003, using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The model successfully predicts all prominent El Nino events within this period at lead times of up to two years. Our analysis suggests that the evolution of El Nino is controlled to a larger degree by self-sustaining internal dynamics than by stochastic forcing. Model-based prediction of El Nino therefore depends more on the initial conditions than on unpredictable atmospheric noise. We conclude that throughout the past century, El Nino has been more predictable than previously envisaged.