The Chinese Economy from 1997:2015: Developing a Baseline for the MC-HUGE Model
The Chinese Economy from 1997:2015: Developing a Baseline for the MC-HUGE Model
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发表时间：
2006-09
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通讯作者：
Y. Mai
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作者：
Y. Mai
MC-HUGE是中国经济的动态可计算一般均衡模型。MC-HUGE模型的核心CGE部分是基于ORANI模型的。MC-HUGE的动力学机制是基于莫纳什模型的动力学机制。本文利用中国1997 - 2005年的经济增长数据对MC-HUGE模型进行了实证检验。它还报告了如何使用该模型来预测中国经济从2005年到2015年的增长路径。历史模拟和预测模拟产生一个基线或一个一切照旧的情景，与之比较经济政策或环境的任何变化的影响。
MC-HUGE is a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. The core CGE part of the MC-HUGE model is based on that of the ORANI model. The dynamic mechanism of MC-HUGE is based on that of the MONASH model. This paper documents how the MC-HUGE model is calibrated to China's economic growth data from 1997 to 2005. It also reports how the model is used to forecast a growth path for the Chinese economy from 2005 to 2015. The historical and the forecast simulation produce a baseline or a business-as-usual scenario with which to compare the effects of any changes in economic policies or environment.