Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change
Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change
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气候变化背景下北京重度雾霾天气条件更加频繁
DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3249
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发表时间：
2017-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Wu, Lixin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cai, Wenju;Li, Ke;Wu, Lixin
在过去的几十年里，北京冬季严重雾霾事件的频率大幅增加，通常归因于中国经济快速发展造成的污染物排放增加。在这些事件中，细颗粒物的水平对人类健康和环境有害，并对经济活动造成大规模破坏，如2013年1月发生的情况。有利的天气条件是严重烟霾事件的重要组成部分，包括冬季地面北风减弱，对流层中层西北风减弱，低层大气热稳定性增强。这种天气状况如何应对气候变化尚不清楚。为了应对气候变化，我们预计与2013年1月类似的有利天气条件的频率将增加50%，持续时间将增加80%。在代表性浓度路径8.5（RCP8.5）下，在15个模式中比较了历史（1950-1999）和未来（2050-2099）气候之间的频率和持续性。频率的增加与大尺度环流变化相一致，包括北极涛动上升趋势，东亚冬季风减弱，以及对流层低层变暖加快。因此，全球温室气体排放引起的环流变化可能有助于增加北京严重灰霾的频率。
The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades,,,, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development,. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities,,,,,,,,,,,, as occurred in January 2013,,,,. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes,, and include reduced surface winter northerlies,, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere,,,. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950–1999) and future (2050–2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend,, weakening East Asian winter monsoon,, and faster warming in the lower troposphere,. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.