Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe
Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-19-3517-2015
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Machado, M. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Benito, G.;Brazdil, R.;Machado, M. J.
近几十年来，从文献证据中量化洪水水文特征（峰值流量、水文曲线形状和径流量）作为一种延长罕见和极端事件洪水记录的方法得到了科学的认可。本文描述了定量历史水文学在水力学和统计学发展影响下的方法论演变。在19世纪，基于洪水标志的流量计算是工程设计水文数据的唯一来源，但后来被系统的测量记录和传统的水文程序所取代。在过去的二十年中，科学和公众对了解罕见洪水的长期模式，维护洪水遗产和极端记忆，以及开发确定性和统计应用于不同科学和工程问题的方法越来越感兴趣。对欧洲46个案例的研究表明：(1)在大多数情况下，目前的洪水规模在过去一千年的背景下并不罕见，尽管最近的洪水可能超过一些温带欧洲河流（如伏尔塔瓦河和波河）过去的洪水；(2)自20世纪50年代以来，极端洪水的发生频率有所下降，但一些河流（如花园河和乌斯河）在过去20年里出现了罕见事件的重现。基于提供高分辨率时间洪水序列及其环境和气候变化的综合多代理方法（古洪水和文献记录），有很大的潜力获得对个别极端事件的理解；在自然低频气候变率下，建立了基于洪水与内外协变量关系的非系统非平稳统计模型。
In recent decades, the quantification of flood hydrological characteristics (peak discharge, hydrograph shape, and runoff volume) from documentary evidence has gained scientific recognition as a method to lengthen flood records of rare and extreme events. This paper describes the methodological evolution of quantitative historical hydrology under the influence of developments in hydraulics and statistics. In the 19th century, discharge calculations based on flood marks were the only source of hydrological data for engineering design, but were later left aside in favour of systematic gauge records and conventional hydrological procedures. In the last two decades, there has been growing scientific and public interest in understanding long-term patterns of rare floods, in maintaining the flood heritage and memory of extremes, and developing methods for deterministic and statistical application to different scientific and engineering problems. A compilation of 46 case studies across Europe with reconstructed discharges demonstrates that (1) in most cases present flood magnitudes are not unusual within the context of the last millennium, although recent floods may exceed past floods in some temperate European rivers (e.g. the Vltava and Po rivers); (2) the frequency of extreme floods has decreased since the 1950s, although some rivers (e.g. the Gardon and Ouse rivers) show a reactivation of rare events over the last two decades. There is a great potential for gaining understanding of individual extreme events based on a combined multiproxy approach (palaeoflood and documentary records) providing high-resolution time flood series and their environmental and climatic changes; and for developing non-systematic and non-stationary statistical models based on relations of past floods with external and internal covariates under natural low-frequency climate variability.