Evaluating the reliability of efficient energy technology portfolios
Evaluating the reliability of efficient energy technology portfolios
复制标题
评估高效能源技术组合的可靠性
DOI：
10.1007/s40070-018-0077-4
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
J. Deason
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ilka DeLuque;E. Shittu;J. Deason
本文开发了一个决策评估框架，以评估如何处理风险影响的可靠性，并投资到，发电基础设施。首先，投资组合的发电技术，包括在美国的能源供应系统进行评估，使用均值方差法。其次，本研究评估的可靠性的投资组合的援助损失的负载期望和损失的能量期望指标。该方法考虑到最低成本的技术组合，加上减少市场和系统风险。投资组合成本的变动乃基于地理位置的现行政策。总体而言，目前的技术组合评估沿着成本风险纬度显示出一个效率低下的电力技术组合系统。首先，对可再生能源技术的投资可能会产生分歧。一方面，高成本间歇性技术占很大比例的投资组合表现出较低的市场风险。另一方面，这些投资组合具有不太理想的系统可靠性措施。其次，政策制定者将发现，更多样化的电力技术组合有可能在短期内向效率前沿转移，这一点很有启发性。然而，必须制定支持过渡的政策，但要注意技术多样性并不总是提高系统可靠性的灵丹妙药，即使投资组合处于有效前沿。这项工作提出了一些有趣的见解，并为政策制定者提供了指导。
This paper develops a decision evaluation framework to assess how the treatment of risk affects the reliability of, and investment into, electricity generation infrastructure. First, portfolios of electricity generation technologies that comprise the energy supply systems in the US are evaluated using a mean-variance approach. Second, this research assesses the reliability of the portfolios with the aid of loss of load expectation and loss of energy expectation metrics. The methodology considers the least-cost technology mix coupled with the reduction of market and system risks. The variation in the portfolio cost is based on the prevailing policies in the geographic locations. Overall, the current mix of technologies evaluated along the cost-risk latitudes shows an inefficient electricity technology portfolio system. First, investments in renewable technologies may create a bifurcation. On the one hand, the portfolios with significant proportions of the high-cost intermittent technologies exhibit low market risks. On the other hand, these portfolios have less desirable system reliability measures. Second, policy makers will find it instructive that a more diverse electricity technology mix offers the potential to migrate to the efficient frontier in the near term. However, it is imperative to craft policies in support of the transition with the caveat that technology diversity is not always a panacea for improving system reliability even if the portfolio is on the efficient frontier. This work projects some intriguing insights and offers guidance for policy makers.