Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss.
Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss.
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms9798
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发表时间：
2015-11-10
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Holland D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gomez N;Pollard D;Holland D
在气候变暖的情况下，南极冰盖（AIS）海洋部分的稳定性已被确定为未来海平面上升预测的最大不确定性来源。后退的海洋冰盖的接地线附近的海平面下降有稳定的冰盖的影响，以前的研究已经建立了冰河时代AIS演变的重要性，这种反馈。在这里，我们使用一个耦合冰盖海平面模型来研究反馈机制对未来AIS撤退超过百年和千年的时间尺度的排放情景范围的影响。我们表明，基岩隆起和海面下降与冰盖退缩相结合，显着减少AIS质量损失相对于模拟没有这些影响。敏感性分析表明，稳定往往是最低的排放情景和地球模型的特点是薄弹性岩石圈和低粘度上地幔，如西南极洲的情况。 南极冰盖的退缩及其对未来海平面上升的潜在影响是气候研究的一个主要焦点。在这里，作者表明，涉及基岩隆起和海面下降的正反馈可能会显着影响当地冰盖退缩的时间和程度。
The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica. The retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its potential contribution to future sea-level rise, is a major focus of climate research. Here, the authors show that positive feedbacks involving bedrock uplift and sea surface drop, may significantly impact the timing and extent of local ice-sheet retreat.