An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada
An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada
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DOI：
10.1007/s11113-017-9440-6
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发表时间：
2017-12-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Dion, Patrice
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dion, Patrice
国内移民在国家以下各级人口预测中发挥着关键作用。多区域模式往往被视为黄金标准，因为它有能力同时协调一致地预测几个相互关联的区域。然而，当使用恒定转移概率的假设时，可能会发生不期望的效果。本文调查这些限制，探讨了一些文献中提供的解决方案，并介绍了加拿大统计局在其最新版本的加拿大各省和地区的人口预测所使用的替代方法。除其他外，新方法被证明可以提高内部迁移假设和结果之间的一致性，并有助于预测与该组成部分相关的不确定性。
Internal migration plays a critical role in subnational population projections. The multiregional model is often seen as a gold standard, for its capacity to project several interconnected regions simultaneously and coherently. However, undesirable effects may occur when assumptions of constant transition probabilities are used. This paper investigates these limits, explores a few solutions provided in the literature and describes the alternative methodology used by Statistics Canada in its most recent edition of population projections for the Canadian provinces and territories. Among other things, the new method is shown to improve the consistency between internal migration assumptions and results and to facilitate the projection of the uncertainty associated with this component.