Future fuel cell and internal combustion engine automobile technologies:: A 25-year life cycle and fleet impact assessment
Future fuel cell and internal combustion engine automobile technologies:: A 25-year life cycle and fleet impact assessment
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2005.09.011
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发表时间：
2006-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Weiss, Malcolm A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schafer, Andreas;Heywood, John B.;Weiss, Malcolm A.
氢燃料电池（FC）汽车作为一种潜在的强大技术正在受到越来越多的关注，以减少运输部门对石油的依赖，同时大幅减少温室气体（GHG）的排放。本文预测了不同FC车辆配置的能源使用和GHG排放，并将这些值与相似尺寸和性能的汽油和柴油燃料汽车在生命周期（从井到轮，从摇篮到坟墓）上的预测特性进行了比较。我们的分析表明，在未来20年或更长时间内，如果氢来自天然气，与氢燃料电池汽车相比，新的内燃机（ICE）混合动力传动系统车辆可以实现类似的能源使用和温室气体排放减少水平。更节能的车辆对车队的影响取决于新技术（i）变得具有竞争力，（ii）增加其在所生产的新车中的份额，以及（iii）显著渗透到车队中所需的时间。由于将改进的内燃机汽车技术投入生产的时间最短，其对车队能源使用和排放的影响可能在20-30年内显着，大约是氢燃料电池汽车产生类似影响所需时间的一半。只有在大规模采用零排放或极低碳排放的生产工艺生产氢时，才能实现燃料电池汽车的全部减排潜力--这一选择将进一步增加影响交付周期。因此，减少汽车能源使用和排放的综合短期和长期战略应包括不断改进内燃机车辆和同时研究和开发氢燃料电池汽车。(c)2005爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Hydrogen fuel cell (FC) vehicles are receiving increasing attention as a potential powerful technology to reduce the transportation sector's dependence on petroleum and substantially decrease emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at the same time. This paper projects energy use and GHG emissions from different FC vehicle configurations and compares these values to the projected characteristics of similarly sized and performing gasoline and diesel fueled automobiles on a life cycle, well to wheels and cradle to grave basis. Our analysis suggests that for the next 20 or more years, new internal combustion engine (ICE) hybrid drive train vehicles can achieve similar levels of reduction in energy use and GHG emissions compared to hydrogen FC vehicles, if the hydrogen is derived from natural gas. The fleet impact of more fuel-efficient vehicles depends on the time it takes for new technology to (i) become competitive, (ii) increase its share of the new vehicles produced, and finally (iii) penetrate significantly into the vehicle fleet. Since the lead times for bringing improved ICE vehicle technology into production are the shortest, its impact on vehicle fleet energy use and emissions could be significant in 20-30 years, about half the time required for hydrogen FC vehicles to have a similar impact. Full emission reduction potential of FC vehicles can only be achieved when hydrogen is derived from zero or very low-carbon releasing production processes on a large scale-an option that further increases the impact leadtime. Thus, a comprehensive short- and long-term strategy for reducing automobile energy use and emissions should include both the continuous improvement of ICE vehicles and simultaneous research and development of hydrogen FC cars. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.