Impact of Global Ocean Surface Warming on Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction
Impact of Global Ocean Surface Warming on Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction
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DOI：
10.1175/2010jcli3645.1
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发表时间：
2011-03
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Jing‐Jia Luo;S. Behera;Y. Masumoto;T. Yamagata
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jing‐Jia Luo;S. Behera;Y. Masumoto;T. Yamagata
摘要过去2- 30年来，全球地球仪，特别是北方半球各大洲的地表气温（SAT）迅速上升，导致1997/98年后气候状态突然转向温暖。陆地气候变暖是由区域对温室气体浓度增加的响应还是由海表温度升高引起的，目前存在争议。SST变暖本身可能由温室气体强迫增加和缓慢变化的自然过程驱动。此外，近期全球变暖是否会影响季节至年际气候可预测性也是一个值得探讨的重要问题。基于日本海洋地球科学技术机构（JAMSTEC）的气候预测系统（该系统只同化观测到的SST用于耦合模式初始化），本研究表明，历史SST上升在推动地球仪陆地变暖的过程中起着关键作用。SST变暖的趋势，虽然可以忽略不计的短铅...
Abstract Surface air temperature (SAT) over the globe, particularly the Northern Hemisphere continents, has rapidly risen over the last 2–3 decades, leading to an abrupt shift toward a warmer climate state after 1997/98. Whether the terrestrial warming might be caused by local response to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations or by sea surface temperature (SST) rise is recently in dispute. The SST warming itself may be driven by both the increasing GHG forcing and slowly varying natural processes. Besides, whether the recent global warming might affect seasonal-to-interannual climate predictability is an important issue to be explored. Based on the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) climate prediction system in which only observed SSTs are assimilated for coupled model initialization, the present study shows that the historical SST rise plays a key role in driving the intensified terrestrial warming over the globe. The SST warming trend, while negligible for short lead...