Vulnerability to the mortality effects of warm temperature in the districts of England and Wales
Vulnerability to the mortality effects of warm temperature in the districts of England and Wales
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2123
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发表时间：
2014-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Ezzati, Majid
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bennett, James E.;Blangiardo, Marta;Ezzati, Majid
在极端条件下以及当温度变化较温和时，温暖的温度会对疾病的发生和死亡产生不利影响（1，2）。因此，预计会影响平均温度和温度变化的气候变化，即使在温带气候下也可能影响健康。如果有关于对温度影响的脆弱性和抗御能力的信息，气候变化风险评估就会得到丰富。一些研究分析了使个人容易受到温度不利影响的社会人口特征（1-4）。对社区一级的脆弱性了解较少。我们使用地理编码的死亡率和环境数据以及贝叶斯空间方法对英格兰和威尔士所有376个地区的温暖温度对死亡率的影响进行了全国性的小区域分析。在最脆弱的地区，即伦敦和英格兰南部/东南部，温度升高1摄氏度，死于心肺原因的几率增加了10%以上，而在最具弹性的地区，在遥远的北方，几乎没有影响。一个2摄氏度的温暖的夏天可能会导致1,552（95%可信区间1307 - 1762）额外的死亡，其中约一半将发生在95个地区。研究结果使风险和适应性分析纳入当地对温暖温度的脆弱性，并量化其影响的不平等。
Warm temperatures adversely affect disease occurrence and death, in extreme conditions as well as when the temperature changes are more modest(1,2). Therefore climate change, which is expected to affect both average temperatures and temperature variability, is likely to impact health even in temperate climates. Climate change risk assessment is enriched if there is information on vulnerability and resilience to effects of temperature. Some studies have analysed socio-demographic characteristics that make individuals vulnerable to adverse effects of temperature(1-4). Less is known about community-level vulnerability. We used geo-coded mortality and environmental data and Bayesian spatial methods to conduct a national small-area analysis of the mortality effects of warm temperature for all 376 districts in England and Wales. In the most vulnerable districts, those in London and south/southeast England, odds of dying from cardiorespiratory causes increased by more than 10% for 1 degrees C warmer temperature, compared with virtually no effect in the most resilient districts, which were in the far north. A 2 degrees C warmer summer may result in 1,552 (95% credible interval 1,307-1,762) additional deaths, about one-half of which would occur in 95 districts. The findings enable risk and adaptation analyses to incorporate local vulnerability to warm temperature and to quantify inequality in its effects.