National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics
National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-019-02528-0
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发表时间：
2019-10
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
A. Rudd;A. Kay;Victoria A. Bell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Rudd;A. Kay;Victoria A. Bell
气候变化对干旱的潜在影响日益令人关切，特别是由于最近地球仪各地发生了重大事件。在这里，一个国家级的网格为基础的水文模型是用来调查潜在的未来变化的河流流量和土壤水分干旱整个英国。该分析使用了四个时间段（1930年代，1980年代，2030年代和2080年代）的气候模型数据，这些数据都是在“一切照旧”（RCP 8.5）的排放轨迹下进行的。结果表明，干旱的严重程度预计将在未来增加。东南部地区的河流流量干旱预计将增加峰值强度并略有延长，而英国其他大部分地区的峰值强度预计将减少。干旱的最大的空间范围在英国预计将增加面积的河流流量和土壤水分。比以往更为极端的干旱可能对水生环境以及工业、农业用水和公共供水产生重大影响。从区域到国家规模的干旱可能会对区域间调水等潜在缓解措施产生影响。反过来，这可能导致社会和经济影响，特别是因为未来的需求也可能增加。
The potential impact of climate change on drought is of increasing concern, especially due to recent occurrences of major events across the globe. Here a national-scale grid–based hydrological model is used to investigate potential future changes in river flow and soil moisture droughts across Great Britain. The analysis uses ensembles of climate model data for four time periods (1930s, 1980s, 2030s and 2080s) under a “business-as-usual” (RCP8.5) emissions trajectory. The results show that the severity of droughts is projected to increase in the future. River flow droughts in southeastern regions are projected to increase in peak intensity and lengthen slightly, whereas peak intensities are projected to decrease for much of the rest of Britain. Droughts with the largest spatial extent across Britain are projected to increase in area for both river flow and soil moisture. More extreme droughts than previously experienced could have a significant impact on the aquatic environment as well as the availability of water for industry, agriculture and public water supply. Regional- to national-scale droughts could have implications for potential mitigation measures such as water transfer between regions. In turn, this could lead to social and economic impacts, especially as there are also likely to be future increases in demand.