Millennial-Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse
Millennial-Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse
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南极冰盖对区域冰架崩塌的千年规模脆弱性
DOI：
10.1029/2018gl081229
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Martin D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Martin D
南极冰盖（AIS）仍然是预测未来海平面上升的最大不确定性。AIS的一个可能的气候驱动的脆弱性是由于表面融化驱动的水力压裂或相对温暖的水侵入陆架下的海洋空腔而导致的浮冰架变薄。由此产生的融化、弱化和潜在的冰架坍塌减少了冰架支撑效应。上游冰流加速，导致冰变薄、接地线退缩以及潜在的冰盖崩塌。虽然已经对局部南极地区进行了高分辨率预测，但全大陆模拟通常仅限于低分辨率模式。在这里，我们量化了整个现今AIS在千年时间尺度上对区域冰架崩溃的脆弱性，以必要的100km分辨率处理相关的冰流动力学。任何与西南极冰盖（WAIS）动态连接的冰架的崩溃都足以引发WAIS海洋接地部分的冰盖崩溃。其他地方的脆弱性似乎仅限于地方性对策。
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate‐driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface‐melt‐driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavities. The resulting melting, weakening, and potential ice shelf collapse reduces shelf buttressing effects. Upstream ice flow accelerates, causing thinning, grounding‐line retreat, and potential ice sheet collapse. While high‐resolution projections have been performed for localized Antarctic regions, full‐continent simulations have typically been limited to low‐resolution models. Here we quantify the vulnerability of the entire present‐day AIS to regional ice shelf collapse on millennial timescales treating relevant ice flow dynamics at the necessary ∼1‐km resolution. Collapse of any of the ice shelves dynamically connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is sufficient to trigger ice sheet collapse in marine‐grounded portions of the WAIS. Vulnerability elsewhere appears limited to localized responses.