Diagnosing Northern Hemisphere Jet Portrayal in 17 CMIP3 Global Climate Models: Twenty-First-Century Projections
Diagnosing Northern Hemisphere Jet Portrayal in 17 CMIP3 Global Climate Models: Twenty-First-Century Projections
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-12-00359.1
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发表时间：
2013-07
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Sharon C. Delcambre;D. Lorenz;D. Vimont;Jonathan E. Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sharon C. Delcambre;D. Lorenz;D. Vimont;Jonathan E. Martin
人为气候变化对涡流急流系统的影响包括增强的中纬度急流和升高的对流层顶，以及向极地移动的急流。虽然这两种响应在耦合模型比对项目 (CMIP3) 整体平均二十一世纪预测的第三阶段中都很明显，但向极移响应的不确定性足够大，甚至所有模型中的移动符号也不一致，尤其是在北半球。目前的分析发现，21 世纪对 300 hPa 的集合平均纬向风变化的预测预测，太平洋急流将减弱并向极地扩张，而大西洋急流将全面扩张。与中纬度高空风增加的直接纬向平均气候变化信号相反，预计太平洋和大西洋急流核心的纬向风将减少，而主要位于急流出口区域和经向侧翼的纬向风将增加。二十世纪到二十一世纪模型之间海表温度变化的不确定性被证明会影响模拟的北半球急流变化。
The anthropogenic climate change impacts on the eddy‐jet system include an intensified midlatitude jet stream and an elevated tropopause, as well as a poleward-shifted jet. While both responses are evident in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) ensemble mean twenty-first-century projections, uncertainty in the poleward shift response is large enough that even the sign of the shift is not consistent among all models, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. The present analysis finds that twentyfirst-century projections of the ensemble mean zonal wind change at 300 hPa predict a weakening and poleward expansion of the Pacific jet and an overall expansion of the Atlantic jet. In contrast with the direct zonal mean climate change signal of increasing midlatitude upper-level winds, zonal winds are projected to decreaseinthecoreofthePacificandAtlanticjets,withincreasingzonalwindslocatedprimarilyinthejetexit regions and the meridional flanks of the jets. Uncertainties in SST changes from the twentieth century to the twenty-first century between models are shown to impact modeled Northern Hemisphere jet stream changes.