Nomograms-based prediction of overall and cancer-specific survivals for patients with chromophobe renal cell carcinoma
Nomograms-based prediction of overall and cancer-specific survivals for patients with chromophobe renal cell carcinoma
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基于列线图的嫌色肾细胞癌患者总体生存率和癌症特异性生存率预测
DOI：
10.1177/1535370220977107
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发表时间：
2021-03-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Hou, Jianquan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Chunyang;Geng, Xinyu;Hou, Jianquan
本研究建立并检验了两个有效的列线图，用于预测嫌色肾细胞癌（chRCC）患者的癌症特异性生存期和总生存期。采用多变量考克斯回归分析筛选预测癌症特异性生存期和总生存期的独立预后因素，并基于从监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库下载的回顾性研究（2004年至2015年）中纳入2901例chRCC患者的训练集构建列线图。在1934例患者的验证队列中验证列线图，随后根据受试者工作特征曲线、校准曲线、一致性（C指数）和决策曲线分析检查列线图的性能。结果表明，肿瘤分级、AJCC和N分期、种族、婚姻状况、年龄、化疗史、放疗史和手术史是影响总生存期的个体预后因素; AJCC、N和SEER分期、手术史、放疗史和化疗史、年龄、肿瘤分级是影响肿瘤特异性生存期的个体预后因素。根据C指数、受试者工作特征曲线和决策曲线分析结果，与TNM分期和SEER分期相比，诺模图预测总生存期和OSS的准确性更高。预测集和验证集之间的所有校准曲线均显著一致。在这项研究中，构建了经验证高度准确和适用的列线图，以便于对2004年至2015年期间诊断为chRCC的患者的癌症特异性生存期和总生存期进行个性化预测。
This study built and tested two effective nomograms for the purpose of predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival of chromophobe renal cell carcinoma (chRCC) patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was employed to filter independent prognostic factors predictive of cancer-specific survival and overall survival, and the nomograms were built based on a training set incorporating 2901 chRCC patients in a retrospective study (from 2004 to 2015) downloaded from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. The nomograms were verified on a validation cohort of 1934 patients, subsequently the performances of the nomograms were examined according to the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curves, the concordance (C-index), and decision curve analysis. The results showed that tumor grade, AJCC and N stages, race, marital status, age, histories of chemotherapy, radiotherapy and surgery were the individual prognostic factors for overall survival, and that AJCC, N and SEER stages, histories of surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy, age, tumor grade were individual prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival. According to C-indexes, receiver operating characteristic curves, and decision curve analysis outcomes, the nomograms showed a higher accuracy in predicting overall survival and OSS when compared with TNM stage and SEER stage. All the calibration curves were significantly consistent between predictive and validation sets. In this study, the nomograms, which were validated to be highly accurate and applicable, were built to facilitate individualized predictions of the cancer-specific survival and overall survival to patients diagnosed with chRCC between 2004 and 2015.