Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for US east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea
Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for US east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea
复制标题
IPCC对美国东海岸海洋、墨西哥湾和加勒比海海面风和风能预测的统计降尺度
DOI：
10.1007/s11802-016-2869-0
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Song Jun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yao Zhigang;Xue Zuo;He Ruoying;Bao Xianwen;Song Jun
开发了一种多元统计降尺度方法，以根据IPCC全球模型对美国东部沿海海洋、墨西哥湾（GOM）和加勒比海的预测来生成区域、高分辨率、沿海表面风场。统计关系建立在2000年至2009年10年期间交叉校准的多平台多仪器海洋表面风速数据集（预测值）和全球NCEP风再分析（预测值）的经验正交函数（ERF）空间之间的线性回归上。在应用前对统计关系进行了验证，并通过1992-1999年美国东部沿海和墨西哥湾16个国家数据浮标中心（NDBC）浮标实测的风场与NCEP再分析的降尺度风场之间的良好一致性证实了统计关系的有效性。将该关系应用于IPCC GFDL模式输出的0.25°×0.25°尺度下的海岸风场（2.0°×2.5°）。进一步量化了研究区域未来预测风速和风能潜力的时空变异性。结果表明，在大西洋中部和美国东北部近海的高CO2气候情景下，风速和功率将显著降低，速度下降到原来的四分之一。
A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis andin-situsurface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992–1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.