Decrease of river runoff in the Lake Balkhash basin in Central Asia
Decrease of river runoff in the Lake Balkhash basin in Central Asia
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.6097
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发表时间：
2006-04-15
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Matsuyama, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kezer, K;Matsuyama, H
利用长期的水文和气象资料，研究了流入中亚巴尔喀什湖的河流径流减少情况。1911年至1986年年径流的差值积分曲线表明，伊犁河从1970年开始枯水期，东江从1973年开始枯水期，一直持续到1986年。与1969年以前的径流量相比，伊犁上游的径流降幅小于中下游。上游的减少是自然变化的结果，而中下游的减少是气候和人类活动共同作用的结果。造成这种情况的原因有两个。首先，1970年后，整个流域的降水量并没有均匀减少。其次，1970年，卡普查盖大坝开始运行。因此，1970年以后从伊犁河流入巴尔喀什湖的年流量降至1969年前平均水平的77%。1973年以后，东江来水量为1972年前的75%，伊犁河上游、中游和下游的生长期(4~9月)和非生长期(10~3月)的径流特征进行了研究。在所有河段，非生长季的径流在1969年前后都保持不变。但从1970年到1986年，中下游地区生长季的流量降幅是上游地区的2.0~2.5倍。这主要是由于人类活动的影响。由此可见，1970年后中下游径流量的减少是枯水期人类活动的结果。版权所有(C)2006 John Wiley&Sons，Ltd.
The decrease of river runoff draining into Lake Balkhash in Central Asia was investigated using hydrological and meteorological data over a long-term period. The data from the difference integral curves of the annual runoff from 1911 to 1986 suggested that a low-flow period began in 1970 in the River Ili, and in 1973 in the east rivers, continuing until 1986. Compared with the runoff before 1969, the decrease of runoff in the upper reaches of the River Ili was less than those in the middle and lower reaches. The decrease in the upper reaches resulted from natural variability, whereas those of the middle and lower reaches were due to a combination of the effects of climate and human activity. There are two reasons for this. First, after 1970, precipitation did not decrease uniformly across the entire basin. Second, in 1970, the Kapchagay dam started operating. As a result, the annual inflow into Lake Balkhash from the River Ili after 1970 decreased to 77% of the pre- 1969 mean. Similarly, after 1973, the inflow from the east rivers was 75% of the pre-1972 mean.The characteristics of the runoff in the growing season (April to September) and those in the non-growing season (October to March) were investigated for the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the River Ili. In all reaches, the runoff in the non-growing season remained unchanged both before and after 1969. However, from 1970 to 1986, decreases of river flow in the growing season were 2.0 to 2.5 times greater in the middle and lower reaches than in the upper reaches. This was primarily due to the impacts of human activity. In conclusion, it can be deduced that the decrease in runoff after 1970 in the middle and lower reaches was the result of human activity during the low-flow period. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.