Two-Stage TMLE to reduce bias and improve efficiency in cluster randomized trials.

Two-Stage TMLE to reduce bias and improve efficiency in cluster randomized trials.
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两阶段的TMLE可以降低偏差并提高群集随机试验的效率。

DOI:
10.1093/biostatistics/kxab043
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发表时间:
2023-04-14
期刊:
Biostatistics (Oxford, England)
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群集随机试验(CRT)将干预措施随机分配给个体组(例如,诊所或社区),并测量这些群体中个人的结果。虽然提供了许多优点,这种实验设计引入了挑战,只有部分解决现有的分析方法。首先,集群中的一些个体往往没有结果。未能适当调整不同的结果测量可能会导致有偏见的估计和推断。其次,CRT通常随机化有限数量的集群,导致两组之间基线结果预测因素的机会不平衡。如果不对这些不平衡和其他预测协变量进行自适应调整,可能会导致效率损失。为了解决这些方法上的差距,我们提出并评估了一种新的两阶段有针对性的基于最小损失的估计量,以优化精度的方式调整基线协变量,在控制基线和基线后缺失结果的原因。有限样本模拟表明,我们的方法几乎可以消除偏差,由于差分结果测量,而现有的CRT估计产生误导性的结果和推论。应用于来自于社区随机试验的真实的数据表明,在控制了个体水平结果的缺失后,通过对基线协变量进行自适应调整,可以提高效率。
Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) randomly assign an intervention to groups of individuals (e.g., clinics or communities) and measure outcomes on individuals in those groups. While offering many advantages, this experimental design introduces challenges that are only partially addressed by existing analytic approaches. First, outcomes are often missing for some individuals within clusters. Failing to appropriately adjust for differential outcome measurement can result in biased estimates and inference. Second, CRTs often randomize limited numbers of clusters, resulting in chance imbalances on baseline outcome predictors between arms. Failing to adaptively adjust for these imbalances and other predictive covariates can result in efficiency losses. To address these methodological gaps, we propose and evaluate a novel two-stage targeted minimum loss-based estimator to adjust for baseline covariates in a manner that optimizes precision, after controlling for baseline and postbaseline causes of missing outcomes. Finite sample simulations illustrate that our approach can nearly eliminate bias due to differential outcome measurement, while existing CRT estimators yield misleading results and inferences. Application to real data from the SEARCH community randomized trial demonstrates the gains in efficiency afforded through adaptive adjustment for baseline covariates, after controlling for missingness on individual-level outcomes.
动态和静态纵向边际结构工作模型的目标最大似然估计。
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