Floods in Europe - a look into the past
Floods in Europe - a look into the past
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欧洲洪水——回顾过去
DOI：
10.22498/pages.10.3.21
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Heiko Stangl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Brázdil;R. Glaser;C. Pfister;Heiko Stangl
年份从零到四年不等，但大多数是从零到两年。对 1778 年至 1870 年期间 68 场风暴的详细信息进行了分析，其中 25 场是新记录的风暴。计算出的 1778 年至 1870 年平均重现间隔表明，每 1.30 年热带风暴就会对查尔斯顿产生一次重大影响，明显低于 19 世纪末和 20 世纪大部分时间的 1.80 年间隔。 5 年连续平均值表明，这种较大的热带气旋活动大部分发生在 1830 年代。这十年显然是整个时间序列中最活跃的十年。特别是，1838 年发生了四次风暴，是有记录以来每年最多的风暴，四次风暴中的两次发生在 6 月。美国东南部的文献证据虽然不如欧洲和亚洲那么长，但提供了早在现代仪器记录之前就可追溯到十八世纪的高分辨率气候的宝贵信息。它为北美其他现有的高分辨率古气候和古飓风数据库做出了贡献，提供了对自然气候变化的空间变化和原因的进一步见解。除了对晚春降雨和干旱最敏感的树木年轮之外，这些历史数据是过去气候的唯一证据，可以为该地区提供季节性定量重建。美国东南部的历史气候记录也可以帮助测试和验证过去几个世纪的大气环流模型模拟。
year varied from zero to four, but mostly from zero to two. Details of 68 storms were analyzed for the 1778-1870 period, with 25 of them being newly documented storms. A calculated mean recurrence interval for 1778-1870 suggests significant tropical storm impact on Charleston every 1.30 years, clearly lower than the interval of 1.80 years that dominates during most of the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The 5-year running mean indicates that much of this greater tropical cyclone activity occurred in the 1830s. This decade is clearly the most active in the entire time series. In particular, 1838 had four storms, the most annually for the entire record, and two of the four storms occurred in June. Documentary evidence of the Southeastern United States, although not as lengthy as in Europe and Asia, provides valuable information of high resolution climate back into the eighteenth century, well before the modern instrumental record. It contributes to other existing high resolution paleoclimatic and paleohurricane databases for North America, providing further insight on the spatial variations and causes of natural climatic variability. Aside from tree-rings, that are sensitive mostly to late-spring rainfall and drought, these historical data are the only evidence of past climate that can provide seasonal quantitative reconstructions for the region. Historical climate records from the Southeastern United States can also aid in testing and verifying general circulation model simulations of the past several centuries.