Simulating climate change in UK cities using a regional climate model, HadRM3
Simulating climate change in UK cities using a regional climate model, HadRM3
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.2402
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发表时间：
2012-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jones, P. D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
McCarthy, M. P.;Harpham, C.;Jones, P. D.
一个25公里分辨率的区域气候模式（RCM）与一个简单的城市陆面方案相结合，用于评估英国城市气候对大规模温室气体（GHG）引起的气候变化、城市土地利用的局地强迫以及城市地区能源使用引起的人为热通量（AHF）的敏感性。在模型中，温室气体引起的气候变化在城市和农村陆地表面上是相似的，这表明在气候变化的情况下，英国城市热岛的相对大小将保持不变。然而，城市化或英国城市内能源消耗变化的间接影响将有助于进一步的局部人为气候变化，这可以通过该模型进行量化。城市热岛的存在对当前和未来气候中极端高温的发生频率也有显著影响，并将加剧气候变化对城市人口的影响。简单的城市地表交换方案是RCM的一个具有成本效益的附加组成部分。它提供了一个真实的城市尺度的城市热岛，在每个模式时间步长响应模式的动态天气，其幅度和变率与观测值相当。该气候模式提供了长时间的积分，可以在模拟的各种动力条件下得到大范围的热岛样本，并且在本研究中采样了100多年的气候变化。版权所有(c) 2011年皇家气象学会和英国王室版权，英国气象局
A regional climate model (RCM) at 25 km resolution, coupled to a simple urban land-surface scheme has been used to assess the sensitivity of UK urban climates to large-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) induced climate change, local forcing from urban land use, and anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) resulting from energy use in urban areas. GHG-induced climate change is similar over both urban and rural land surfaces in the model, suggesting that under a changing climate the relative magnitude of urban heat islands in the UK would remain the same. However, indirect effects from urbanisation or changes in energy consumption within UK cities would contribute to further localized anthropogenic climate change that can be quantified by this model. The presence of the urban heat island also has a significant impact on the frequency of extreme high temperatures both in present and future climates, and will exacerbate the impact of climate change on the urban population. The simple urban land-surface exchange scheme is a cost effective additional component of the RCM. It is shown to provide a realistic city-scale urban heat island responding to the dynamical weather of the model at every model time-step, with a magnitude and variability comparable to observed values. The climate model provides long integrations to derive large samples of heat islands under a full range of simulated dynamical conditions, and in this study sampling more than 100 years of climate change. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown copyright, the Met Office