Effects of Climate Change on Fragility Curves of Earthen Levees Subjected to Extreme Precipitations
Effects of Climate Change on Fragility Curves of Earthen Levees Subjected to Extreme Precipitations
复制标题
气候变化对极端降水条件下土堤脆弱性曲线的影响
DOI：
10.1061/9780784480724.045
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ellithy, Ghada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jasim, Firas H.;Vahedifard, Farshid;Ragno, Elisa;AghaKouchak, Amir;Ellithy, Ghada
基础设施适应气候变化需要我们更好地了解基础设施对预计极端气候的恢复能力。本研究的目的是调查气候变化对遭受极端降水的土堤的影响。为此，使用研究区域降水的基线（历史）和非平稳预测（未来）强度-持续时间-频率 (IDF) 对加利福尼亚州萨克拉门托的埃尔克霍恩堤坝的性能进行了数值模拟。开发了完全耦合的二维应力可变饱和流有限元模型，用于模拟极端降水以及正常水位和洪水水位条件下的堤坝行为。在降雨持续时间为 1 至 7 天、复发间隔为 25 年、50 年和 100 年的事件的基线和非平稳预测情景下，评估了堤坝的响应。然后将结果用于制定基线和预测的脆弱性曲线，以评估和比较历史和未来气候下堤坝溃决的概率。比较表明，与基线情景相比，在预计的极端降水情况下，堤坝溃决的概率会增加 3% - 12%。
Infrastructure adaption to climate change requires our improved understanding about the resilience of infrastructure to projected climatic extremes. The goal of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on earthen levees subjected to extreme precipitations. For this purpose, the performance of Elkhorn levee in Sacramento, CA was numerically simulated using baseline (historical) and nonstationary projected (future) intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) of precipitations for the study area. A fully coupled 2D stress-variably saturated flow finite element model was developed to simulate the levee behavior under extreme precipitations combined with normal and flood water level conditions. The response of the levee was assessed under baseline and nonstationary projected scenarios for rainfall durations of 1 to 7 days for the events with recurrence intervals of 25, 50, and 100-year. The results were then used to develop baseline and projected fragility curves to assess and compare the probability of levee’s failure under historical and future climates. The comparisons show that the probability of levee’s failure increases 3% - 12% under projected extreme precipitations when compared to the baseline scenario.