Agent-based Modelling of Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Options in Agriculture
Agent-based Modelling of Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Options in Agriculture
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DOI：
10.1111/1477-9552.12045
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发表时间：
2014-06-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Troost, Christian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berger, Thomas;Troost, Christian
计算机模拟模型可以为气候相关分析提供宝贵的见解，并有助于简化政策干预措施，以改善农业的适应和减缓。目前正在扩大可计算一般均衡和部分均衡模型，以包括土地使用变化和能源市场，从而能够评估各种政策措施对农业生产的影响。有人建议将基于代理人的建模（ABM）或多代理人系统（MAS）作为评估农民对农业气候变化的反应以及这些反应如何受到政策影响的补充工具。应用于农业系统的MAS借鉴了递归农场编程的技术，但包括所有单个农场的模型，它们的空间相互作用和自然环境。在本文中，我们讨论了MAS为制定应对气候变化的稳健政策和土地利用战略提供的具体见解。我们表明，MAS非常适合不确定性分析，从而可以补充现有的模拟方法，以促进理解和实施有效的气候相关的农业政策。
Computer simulation models can provide valuable insights for climate-related analysis and help streamline policy interventions for improved adaptation and mitigation in agriculture. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models are currently being expanded to include land-use change and energy markets so that the effects of various policy measures on agricultural production can be assessed. Agent-based modelling (ABM) or multi-agent systems (MAS) have been suggested as a complementary tool for assessing farmer responses to climate change in agriculture and how these are affected by policies. MAS applied to agricultural systems draw on techniques used for Recursive Farm Programming, but include models of all individual farms, their spatial interactions and the natural environment. In this article, we discuss the specific insights MAS provide for developing robust policies and land-use strategies in response to climate change. We show that MAS are well-suited for uncertainty analysis and can thereby complement existing simulation approaches to advance the understanding and implementation of effective climate-related policies in agriculture.