Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches
Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.042
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发表时间：
2012-07
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
B. Ruijven;M. Weitzel;M. Elzen;A. Hof;D. P. Vuuren;Sonja Peterson;Daiju Narita
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Ruijven;M. Weitzel;M. Elzen;A. Hof;D. P. Vuuren;Sonja Peterson;Daiju Narita
为了实现雄心勃勃的全球气候目标，中国和印度的减排努力是必要的。本文分析了关于努力分担方法如何影响中国和印度的排放配额和减排成本的科学文献。我们发现，中国和印度的减排量在时间、方法之间和方法内部以及浓度稳定目标之间存在很大差异。对中国而言，2020年分配的排放配额大大低于基线预测。此外，它们可能低于2005年的排放水平，特别是低浓度目标（低于490 ppm CO2当量）。与基于分配排放配额的方法相比，基于分配减排目标的努力分担方法导致中国的减排量相对较低。对于2050年，中国的排放限额比2005年的低浓度目标低50-80%，方法之间略有差异。尽管如此，中国的减排成本（包括排放交易）仍低于全球平均水平。根据文献，中国的排放限额在2025-2030年达到峰值，以实现低浓度目标。与2005年的水平相比，印度的排放限额有很大的增加。如果允许排放量交易，出售入计量的财政收入可补偿大多数办法中的缓解成本，即使是低浓度目标。印度所有浓度目标的排放配额在2030-2040年左右达到峰值。
To meet ambitious global climate targets, mitigation effort in China and India is necessary. This paper presents an analysis of the scientific literature on how effort-sharing approaches affect emission allowances and abatement costs of China and India. We find that reductions for both China and India differ greatly in time, across- and within approaches and between concentration stabilisation targets. For China, allocated emission allowances in 2020 are substantially below baseline projections. Moreover, they may be below 2005 emission levels, particularly for low concentration targets (below 490ppm CO2-eq). Effort-sharing approaches based on allocating reduction targets lead to relatively lower reductions for China than approaches that are based on allocating emission allowances. For 2050, emission allowances for China are 50–80% below 2005 levels for low concentration targets with minor differences between approaches. Still, mitigation costs of China (including emissions trading) remain mostly below global average. According to literature, Chinese emission allowances peak before 2025–2030 for low concentration targets. India’s emission allowances show high increases compared to 2005 levels. If emission trading is allowed, financial revenues from selling credits might compensate mitigation costs in most approaches, even for low concentration targets. India’s emission allowances peak around 2030–2040 for all concentration targets.