The Draupner wave: A fresh look and the emerging view
The Draupner wave: A fresh look and the emerging view
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DOI：
10.1002/2016jc011649
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发表时间：
2016-08-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Wedi, Nils
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cavaleri, Luigi;Barbariol, Francesco;Wedi, Nils
使用新的高分辨率业务模式ECMWF，我们重新访问的风暴期间，Draupner畸形波1995年1月1日被记录。模拟系统给出了风暴的真实演变，突出了向南传播的极地低压在创造极端波浪条件时所起的关键作用。我们还讨论了气象事件的可预报性。后报波谱允许一个新的分析的概率发生的Draupner波，我们分析不仅在时间上在一个特定的位置，而且在空间上。这就引出了我们来讨论所谓的反常波究竟有多么特殊。对于以有效波高为特征的给定海况，它们即是海洋现实的一部分，关键是遇到它们的概率。在这方面，经常考虑的记录在一个特定的位置可能是误导，因为检测到一个畸形波的概率必须考虑在空间和时间。
Using the new high-resolution operational model of ECMWF, we revisit the storm during which the Draupner freak wave of 1 January 1995 was recorded. The modeling system gives a realistic evolution of the storm highlighting the crucial role played by the southward propagating polar low in creating the extreme wave conditions present at the time the freak wave was recorded. We also discuss the predictability of the meteorological event. The hindcast wave spectra allow a new analysis of the probability of occurrence of the Draupner wave that we analyze not only in time at a specific position, but also in space. This leads us to discuss how exceptional the so-called freak waves really are. For a given sea state, as characterized by the significant wave height, they are namely part of the reality of the ocean, the key point being the probability of encountering them. In this respect, the often considered record at a specific location can be misleading because the probability of detecting a freak wave must be considered both in space and time.