Environmental Fluctuations, Agricultural Production and Collapse: A View from Bronze Age Upper Mesopotamia
Environmental Fluctuations, Agricultural Production and Collapse: A View from Bronze Age Upper Mesopotamia
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环境波动、农业生产和崩溃：青铜时代上美索不达米亚的视角
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-642-60616-8_4
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发表时间：
1997
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
T. Wilkinson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Wilkinson
人类住区及其相关的土地使用区和不断变化的气候之间的关系并不简单。在总结了当前土地利用与环境之间的关系之后，本文描述了土地利用生产力(以及可能支持的人口)如何随作物管理实践而变化。在年际变化大的气候中，农业生产将波动，从而影响土地的潜在承载能力。采用波动生产水平的简单模型表明，除非采取必要步骤储存和进口粮食以及加强生产，否则人口水平也会不同。随着人口的增加和对这类战略的更大依赖，这个系统变得更有压力，并显示出更大的崩溃倾向。这表明，美索不达米亚上游的青铜时代聚落和土地利用系统是脆性系统，因此容易崩溃。在最大产量的情况下，即使是短期的干旱时期也可能导致崩溃，但可以肯定的是，大量的干旱年份将导致相当大的产量赤字，这反过来又可能导致崩溃。
The relationship between human settlements, their associated land use zones and changing climate, is not straightforward. Following a summary of the relationship between present day land-use and environment, this paper describes how land-use productivity (and therefore the population that potentially could be supported) can vary with crop management practices. In a climate characterized by high inter-annual variability, agricultural production will fluctuate thereby influencing potential carrying capacity of the land. Simple models that employ fluctuating levels of production indicate that population levels will also vary unless necessary steps are taken to store and import food, as well as to intensify production. As population increases and greater reliance is placed on such strategies the system becomes more stressed and shows a greater propensity to collapse. It is suggested that Bronze Age settlement and land-use systems of upper Mesopotamia were brittle systems and were therefore vulnerable to collapse. Under conditions of maximum production it is likely that even a short-term dry period may have resulted in collapse, but certainly a significant run of dry years would have resulted in considerable production deficits which in turn could precipitate collapse.