Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
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DOI：
10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020
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发表时间：
2020-11-23
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Brierley, Chris M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
de Nooijer, Wesley;Zhang, Qiong;Brierley, Chris M.
古气候模拟提高了我们对气候的理解，让我们了解气候模型在不同气候情景下的表现，并有助于识别气候系统的稳健特征。在这里，我们分析了北极变暖的16个模拟中上新世温暖期（mPWP），来自上新世模型相互比较项目第2阶段（PlioMIP 2）。PlioMIP 2集合模拟北极（北纬60-90度）年平均地表气温比工业化前时期增加3.7至11.6摄氏度，多模型平均值（MMM）增加7.2 ℃。北极变暖放大率相对于全球卫星异常的集合范围从1.8到3.1（MMM为2.3）。海冰范围异常范围为-3.0至-10.4 x 106 km（2），MMM异常为-5.6 x 106 km（2），与工业化前相比减少了53%。大多数模式（16个中的11个）模拟夏季无海冰条件（
Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2).The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60-90 degrees N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 degrees C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multimodel mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 degrees C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from -3.0 to -10.4 x 10(6) km(2), with a MMM anomaly of -5.6 x 10 6 km(2), which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer seaice-free conditions (