Bayesian analysis of experimental epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease
Bayesian analysis of experimental epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2004.2715
复制
发表时间：
2004-06-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Gibson, GJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Streftaris, G;Gibson, GJ
我们在实验条件下研究了某型口蹄疫病毒的传播动力学。先前对非均匀混合羊群中口蹄疫暴发的实验数据进行的分析表明，通过病毒的连续传代，病毒血症水平下降，但这些分析没有考虑到每只动物病毒传播链长度的可能变化，这隐含在未观察到的传播过程中。我们考虑了一个不确定的暴露感染去除非马尔可夫房室模型的部分观察到的流行病过程，我们采用强大的方法（马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗）的统计推断，以解决流行病学问题的贝叶斯框架下，占所有可用的信息和相关的不确定性在一个连贯的方法。该分析使我们能够研究隐藏的流行病传播史的后验分布，从而根据p值的后验分布确定感染链长度对记录的病毒血症水平的影响。还获得了该疾病的流行病学特征的参数估计。结果表明，在两次实验性暴发中的一次，病毒血症可能有所下降。我们的模型还表明，个体感染性与病毒血症水平有关。
We investigate the transmission dynamics of a certain type of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus under experimental conditions. Previous analyses of experimental data from FMD outbreaks in non-homogeneously mixing populations of sheep have suggested a decline in viraemic level through serial passage of the virus, but these do not take into account possible variation in the length of the chain of viral transmission for each animal, which is implicit in the non-observed transmission process. We consider a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed non-Markovian compartmental model for partially observed epidemic processes, and we employ powerful methodology (Markov chain Monte Carlo) for statistical inference, to address epidemiological issues under a Bayesian framework that accounts for all available information and associated uncertainty in a coherent approach. The analysis allows us to investigate the posterior distribution of the hidden transmission history of the epidemic, and thus to determine the effect of the length of the infection chain on the recorded viraemic levels, based on the posterior distribution of a p-value. Parameter estimates of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease are also obtained. The results reveal a possible decline in viraemia in one of the two experimental outbreaks. Our model also suggests that individual infectivity is related to the level of viraemia.