The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries
The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries
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DOI：
10.1016/s2542-5196(19)30170-6
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
25.7
通讯作者：
Bloom, David E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Simiao;Kuhn, Michael;Bloom, David E.
道路伤害是全球十大死亡原因之一，也阻碍了经济福祉和宏观经济表现。除了有关道路伤害发生率及其导致的发病率和死亡率的医疗数据之外，详细了解其经济影响是制定合理、基于证据的政策的先决条件。我们的目的是确定道路交通伤害及其跨国distribution.Methods的全球宏观经济成本，我们计算了所有道路交通相关伤害的经济负担，为166个国家使用的宏观经济模型，占致命和非致命伤害的劳动力供应的影响，年龄特定的差异，教育和经验的那些谁是受道路交通事故，结果我们估计，道路伤害将花费世界经济1. 8万亿美元（2010年不变美元）在2015-30年，这相当于每年对全球国内生产总值的0. 12%的税收。虽然低收入和中等收入国家的健康负担最大，但它们在道路伤害经济负担中所占的份额仅为全球损失的46.4%，这部分反映了高收入国家生产力（和收入）的提高，但也明显反映了治疗费用的增加。我们的研究结果还表明，治疗费用占更大的比例，在高收入国家的经济负担比低收入countries.Interpretation道路伤害的宏观经济负担是相当大的，分布不平等的国家和世界各地区。这一发现表明了一个微妙的政策制定的情况。我们的框架应该为更详细地分析国家一级和不同国家的政策提供一个良好的起点。版权所有（c）2019作者。由Elsevier Ltd.发布，这是CC BY 4.0许可下的开放获取文章。
Background Road injuries are among the ten leading causes of death worldwide and also impede economic wellbeing and macroeconomic performance. Beyond medical data on the incidence of road injuries and their resulting morbidity and mortality, a detailed understanding of their economic implications is a prerequisite for sound, evidence-based policy making. We aimed to determine global macroeconomic costs of road traffic injuries and their cross-country distribution.Methods We calculated the economic burden of all road traffic-related injuries for 166 countries by use of a macroeconomic model that accounts for the effect of fatal and non-fatal injuries on labour supply, age-specific differences in education and experience of those who are affected by road accidents, and the diversion of injury-related treatment expenses from savings, which results in lower investment.Findings We estimated that road injuries will cost the world economy US$1.8 trillion (constant 2010 US$) in 2015-30, which is equivalent to an annual tax of 0.12% on global gross domestic product. Although low-income and middle-income countries have the largest health burden, their share of the economic burden of road injuries is only 46.4% of the global loss, reflecting in part higher productivity (and earnings) in high-income countries, but also prominently higher treatment costs. Our results also indicate that treatment costs account for a greater proportion of the economic burden in high-income countries than in low-income countries.Interpretation The macroeconomic burden of road injuries is sizeable and distributed unequally across countries and world regions. This finding suggests a case for nuanced policy making. Our framework should provide a good starting point for the more detailed analysis of policies both at country level and across different countries. Copyright (c) 2019 The Authors(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.